IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause

The 1929-1933 Great Depression contraction in US output was precipitated by an endogenous over-accumulation crisis in the 1920s (rising capital-to-output ratio, falling profitability) rather than by Federal Reserve policy errors alone.

PARTIALengine/runs/great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause

PARTIAL - Shiller earnings-yield proxy falls more than 20% before 1929, but direct profit-rate/capital-output data are missing; late-1925 investment share does not rise and JST monetary-contraction gates also clear

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether capital output ratio is actually linked to better or worse real income from 1920 to 1939.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. Shiller earnings-yield proxy falls more than 20% before 1929, but direct profit-rate/capital-output data are missing; late-1925 investment share does not rise and JST monetary-contraction gates also clear

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1920 to 1939, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Capital output ratio
  • Rate of profit
What we checked
  • Real income
  • Industrial production
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause
1007550250192019301939USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp across 1 sampled countries over 1920–1939.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The 1929-1933 Great Depression contraction in US output was precipitated by an endogenous over-accumulation crisis in the 1920s (rising capital-to-output ratio, falling profitability) rather than by Federal Reserve policy errors alone.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if a direct or accepted proxy profitability measure falls at least 20% before 1929, the late-1920s investment/capital-intensity proxy rises into 1929, and the competing 1929-1933 monetary-contraction gates do not independently clear. PARTIAL if the profitability proxy clears but investment/capital-intensity or monetary-channel checks point against a pure over-accumulation account. REFUTED if profitability does not fall by at least 10% before 1929 or if the only strong local-data gates are the monetary-collapse checks.

formal test & threshold
test:      Descriptive proxy comparison of US 1920s Shiller earnings yield, JST investment share, and JST monetary contraction against 1929-1933 output collapse timing.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 1920 – 1939
Evidence type
associational

Descriptive trajectory of US 1920s capital-output proxies, profitability proxies, and capacity-utilisation indicators against the 1929-1933 contraction timing. Pattern-test contrasts the over-accumulation-crisis narrative against the monetary-shock narrative; current local-data result is proxy-limited and therefore cannot graduate beyond PARTIAL without direct profit-rate/capital-output data.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp
outcome
fred:GDPCAtier 1
jst:real_gdptier 3
log_level
industrial_production
outcome
fred:M1204AUSM363SNBRtier 1
log_level
capital_output_ratio
treatment
academic:dumtier 4
pwt:rkna_to_rgdpnatier 3
level
rate_of_profit
treatment
academic:dumtier 4
level
capacity_utilisation
treatment
fred:CAPUTLB00004Stier 1
level_pct
m2_money_stock
control
fred:M14Mtier 1
log_diff
stock_market_index
control
shiller:sp_compositetier 3
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause

Verdict: PARTIAL - Shiller earnings-yield proxy falls more than 20% before 1929, but direct profit-rate/capital-output data are missing; late-1925 investment share does not rise and JST monetary-contraction gates also clear

Exact Local Proxy Gates

  • jst_investment_share_pct_change_1920_1929: 38.819
  • jst_investment_share_pct_change_1923_1929: 6.623
  • jst_investment_share_pct_change_1925_1929: -0.382
  • shiller_earnings_yield_pct_change_1923_1929: -41.472
  • shiller_real_earnings_yield_pct_change_1923_1929: -41.375
  • shiller_dividend_yield_pct_change_1923_1929: -42.111
  • shiller_nominal_earnings_pct_change_1923_1929: 77.619
  • shiller_price_pct_change_1923_1929: 203.480
  • shiller_cape_pct_change_1923_1929: 251.033
  • jst_money_log_ppt_change_1929_1933: -28.479
  • jst_money_pct_change_1929_1933: -24.783
  • jst_nominal_gdp_pct_change_1929_1933: -45.336
  • jst_real_gdp_pct_change_1929_1933: -30.757
  • jst_cpi_pct_change_1929_1933: -23.977
  • jst_unemployment_pp_change_1929_1933: 21.700

Gate Summary

  • profitability_proxy_decline_gt_20pct: True
  • investment_share_rises_1923_1929: True
  • late_1925_1929_investment_share_rises: False
  • monetary_contraction_competing_channel_clears: True
  • direct_capital_output_and_profit_rate_series_loaded: False

Interpretation

The local corpus can validate a proxy version of the over-accumulation story, not the full registered design. Equity earnings/dividend yields compress sharply before 1929, but nominal earnings rise and the direct capital-output/profit-rate series are absent. The same local JST panel strongly validates the competing monetary-contraction timing and magnitude, so the result is PARTIAL rather than a graduation to full support.

Generated by engine/runs/great_depression_over_accumulation_vs_monetary_cause/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate exact benchmark seeded from the Marxian over-accumulation reading of the Great Depression as endogenous crisis, not pure Fed error. Current local-data wrapper is a proxy test until direct 1920s profit-rate/capital-output series are wired.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.