IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024

Guatemala's 2000-2024 macro trajectory shows the migration-and- remittance development pattern: remittance inflows rose from below 3% of GDP (2000) to above 20% (2024), and the macro economy is increasingly stabilised by household-level migrant transfers rather than productive-investment-driven growth.

The pre-registered claim is (a) remittance share of GDP rose by at least 15 percentage points 2000-2024, AND (b) consumption share of GDP rose more than investment share over the same window, AND (c) the correlation between Guatemalan real-GDP growth and US-economy real-GDP growth exceeds 0.5 on annual data 2000-2024 (because remittance flows are pro-cyclical with US labour markets). The mechanism is that migration-and-remittance becomes a quasi-permanent external income channel that smooths consumption but does not necessarily produce domestic productivity convergence.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Remittance share income
  • Consumption share income
  • Gross capital formation share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024
1007550250200020122024GTMHNDSLVNICMEXDOMJAM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show remittance_share_gdp across 7 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:50Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Guatemala's 2000-2024 macro trajectory shows the migration-and- remittance development pattern: remittance inflows rose from below 3% of GDP (2000) to above 20% (2024), and the macro economy is increasingly stabilised by household-level migrant transfers rather than productive-investment-driven growth. The pre-registered claim is (a) remittance share of GDP rose by at least 15 percentage points 2000-2024, AND (b) consumption share of GDP rose more than investment share over the same window, AND (c) the correlation between Guatemalan real-GDP growth and US-economy real-GDP growth exceeds 0.5 on annual data 2000-2024 (because remittance flows are pro-cyclical with US labour markets). The mechanism is that migration-and-remittance becomes a quasi-permanent external income channel that smooths consumption but does not necessarily produce domestic productivity convergence.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) remittance_share_gdp(GTM) rose by less than 15 pp 2000-2024, OR (b) consumption-share growth did not exceed investment-share growth, OR (c) corr(real_gdp_growth(GTM), real_gdp_growth(USA), 2000-2024) is below 0.40.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_plus_correlation_threshold
threshold: remittance_share_gdp(GTM, 2024) - remittance_share_gdp(GTM, 2000) >= 15 AND delta_consumption_share(GTM, 2000-2024) >= delta_capital_formation_share(GTM, 2000-2024) AND corr(real_gdp_growth(GTM), real_gdp_growth(USA), 2000-2024) >= 0.40

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of consumption-share and remittance-share on country and year FE plus GTM-indicator interaction. Secondary: correlation matrix of GTM real-GDP growth with US real-GDP growth.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
remittance_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level
consumption_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
emigration_stock_share_population
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth
us_unemployment_rate
control
fred:UNRATEtier 1
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — guatemala_remittance_dependence_2000_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Guatemala's 2000-2024 macro trajectory shows the migration-and- remittance development pattern: remittance inflows rose from below 3% of GDP (2000) to above 20% (2024), and the macro economy is increasingly stabilised by household-level migrant transfers rather than productive-investment-driven growth. The pre-registered claim is (a) remittance share of GDP rose by at least 15 percentage points 2000-2024, AND (b) consumption share of GDP rose more than investment share over the same window, AND (c) the correlation between Guatemalan real-GDP growth and US-economy real-GDP growth exceeds 0.5 on annual data 2000-2024 (because remittance flows are pro-cyclical with US labour markets). The mechanism is that migration-and-remittance becomes a quasi-permanent external income channel that smooths consumption but does not necessarily produce domestic productivity convergence.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) remittance_share_gdp(GTM) rose by less than 15 pp 2000-2024, OR (b) consumption-share growth did not exceed investment-share growth, OR (c) corr(real_gdp_growth(GTM), real_gdp_growth(USA), 2000-2024) is below 0.40.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_plus_correlation_threshold

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS → remittance_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8867)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.TOTL.ZS → consumption_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8528)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL.ZS → emigration_stock_share_population (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2080)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=560)
  • fred:UNRATE → us_unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=553)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=280)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the migration-driven small-economy macro pattern.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.