IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024

Haiti's 2010-2024 governance trajectory — the failed post-earthquake reconstruction (2010-2015), Martelly-era PetroCaribe-fund mismanagement (2011-2016), Moïse assassination (July 2021), gang takeover of Port- au-Prince (2022-2024), and effective state collapse — produced a catastrophic economic collapse measurable in real-GDP-per-capita decline, life-expectancy stagnation, and emigration acceleration.

The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log GDP per capita 2010-2024 (HTI) is negative (an absolute decline), AND (b) the WGI Government Effectiveness score declined by at least 0.5 standard deviations 2010-2023, AND (c) emigration stock as a share of population rose by at least 5 percentage points across the window. The mechanism is that state-capacity collapse compounds: each year of weak governance raises the cost of the next year's recovery, producing a self-reinforcing decline.

PARTIALengine/runs/haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0225; threshold 5.0%, observed 2.2%

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 2005 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0225; threshold 5.0%, observed 2.2%

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2005 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant
  • Wgi government effectiveness
  • Wgi political stability
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024
1007550250200520152024HTI
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant across 1 sampled countries over 2005–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z

Haiti's 2010-2024 governance trajectory — the failed post-earthquake reconstruction (2010-2015), Martelly-era PetroCaribe-fund mismanagement (2011-2016), Moïse assassination (July 2021), gang takeover of Port- au-Prince (2022-2024), and effective state collapse — produced a catastrophic economic collapse measurable in real-GDP-per-capita decline, life-expectancy stagnation, and emigration acceleration. The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log GDP per capita 2010-2024 (HTI) is negative (an absolute decline), AND (b) the WGI Government Effectiveness score declined by at least 0.5 standard deviations 2010-2023, AND (c) emigration stock as a share of population rose by at least 5 percentage points across the window. The mechanism is that state-capacity collapse compounds: each year of weak governance raises the cost of the next year's recovery, producing a self-reinforcing decline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2010-2024 (HTI) is not negative, OR (b) WGI Government Effectiveness change 2010-2023 is greater than -0.5 standard deviations, OR (c) emigration stock share rose by less than 5 percentage points.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_trajectory_thresholds
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc(HTI, 2010-2024) < 0 AND wgi_government_effectiveness(HTI, 2023) - wgi_government_effectiveness(HTI, 2010) <= -0.5 AND emigration_stock_share(HTI, 2024) - emigration_stock_share(HTI, 2010) >= 5

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2005 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Single-country descriptive trajectory with annotation of named governance events. WGI series measure the institutional collapse channel; macro series measure the consequence.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
wgi_government_effectiveness
outcome
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level
wgi_political_stability
outcome
wgi:GOV_WGI_PV.ESTtier 4
level
life_expectancy_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
emigration_stock_share_population
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth
us_remittance_corridor_proxy
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — haiti_governance_collapse_economic_effect_2010_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0225; threshold 5.0%, observed 2.2%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Haiti's 2010-2024 governance trajectory — the failed post-earthquake reconstruction (2010-2015), Martelly-era PetroCaribe-fund mismanagement (2011-2016), Moïse assassination (July 2021), gang takeover of Port- au-Prince (2022-2024), and effective state collapse — produced a catastrophic economic collapse measurable in real-GDP-per-capita decline, life-expectancy stagnation, and emigration acceleration. The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log GDP per capita 2010-2024 (HTI) is negative (an absolute decline), AND (b) the WGI Government Effectiveness score declined by at least 0.5 standard deviations 2010-2023, AND (c) emigration stock as a share of population rose by at least 5 percentage points across the window. The mechanism is that state-capacity collapse compounds: each year of weak governance raises the cost of the next year's recovery, producing a self-reinforcing decline.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2010-2024 (HTI) is not negative, OR (b) WGI Government Effectiveness change 2010-2023 is greater than -0.5 standard deviations, OR (c) emigration stock share rose by less than 5 percentage points.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_trajectory_thresholds

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: HTI
  • cut_year: 2010
  • pre_mean: 7.3670097078477035
  • post_mean: 7.20315424514403
  • delta: -0.16385546270367346
  • log_delta: -0.022492865755448177
  • n_pre: 50
  • n_post: 15

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 5.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → wgi_government_effectiveness (outcome, publisher=wgi, n=5194)
  • world_bank_wgi:GOV_WGI_PV.EST → wgi_political_stability (outcome, publisher=wgi, n=5281)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy_birth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16996)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL.ZS (outcome, name=emigration_stock_share_population)
  • fred:GDPC1 (controls, name=us_gdp_growth)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS (controls, name=us_remittance_corridor_proxy)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests state-capacity collapse as the binding constraint on development outcomes.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.