IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage financial freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available tertiary enrollment than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap

SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=6.468e-16

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=6.468e-16

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 183 country or place units from 2024 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Financial freedom
What we checked
  • Tertiary enrollment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap
1007550250202420242024AFGAGOALBAREARGARMAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tertiary_enrollment across 183 sampled countries over 2024–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage financial freedom in 2024 have higher latest-available tertiary enrollment than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the high-market quartile has the pre-registered outcome direction versus the low-market quartile at Welch p<=0.10. REFUTED if the opposite direction is significant at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; insufficient group coverage is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      heritage_market_cross_section_heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
183 countries · 2024 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Welch top-vs-bottom quartile mean contrast. This is a screen for broad market-order associations, not a causal policy effect estimate.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tertiary_enrollment
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRRtier 2
latest_available_country_level_since_2018
financial_freedom
treatment
heritage_ief:ief_paneltier 4
2024_component_score:financial_freedom

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — heritage_financial_freedom_tertiary_enrollment_current_gap

Verdict: SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign + and Welch p=6.468e-16

Design

  • Heritage component: financial_freedom using release year 2024.
  • Comparison: top 25% vs bottom 25% of market-score countries.
  • Outcome source: world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRR latest available country observation since 2018.

Estimate

  • High-market mean: 73.40470684598478 over 36 countries.
  • Low-market mean: 27.900241690811878 over 47 countries.
  • Difference, high minus low: 45.504465155172895.
  • Welch p-value: 6.467668190663822e-16.

Caveat

This is a candidate cross-sectional screen. It is useful for broad Austrian/ordoliberal market-order triage, but it is not a causal design and should not be scoreboard-promoted without robustness checks.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.