IESET.
Hypotheses·healthcare·heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel

In a 1996-2023 country panel, stronger control of corruption predicts higher life expectancy after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls.

PARTIALengine/runs/heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03439, p=0.931 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the healthcare rule being tested improve access, cost, or outcomes for patients, or does it mainly shift pressure around the system?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.03439, p=0.931 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because healthcare claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 53 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Control corruption wgi
What we checked
  • Life expectancy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel
1007550250199620102023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_expectancy across 53 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In a 1996-2023 country panel, stronger control of corruption predicts higher life expectancy after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on control_corruption_wgi is positive at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations. REFUTED if it is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
53 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects with country-clustered standard errors; optional leave-one-region-out checks remain a later robustness extension.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
control_corruption_wgi
treatment
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level
trade_openness_control
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_consumption_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.03439, p=0.931 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In a 1996-2023 country panel, stronger control of corruption predicts higher life expectancy after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the coefficient on control_corruption_wgi is positive at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations. REFUTED if it is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_heritage_government_integrity_life_expectancy_wgi_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.03439
  • Std error: 0.3947
  • p-value: 0.931
  • Observations: 1098, countries: 44
  • Within R²: 0.235
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • wgi:CC.EST → control_corruption_wgi (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5201)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_control (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.