IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available gross-capital-formation share than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

PARTIALengine/runs/heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap

PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=2.161, p=0.1262)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=2.161, p=0.1262)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 183 country or place units from 2024 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tax burden
What we checked
  • Investment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap
1007550250202420242024AFGAGOALBAREARGARMAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show investment_share across 183 sampled countries over 2024–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 080161c · 2026-05-04T10:41:37Z

Countries in the top quartile of Heritage lower-tax-burden score in 2024 have higher latest-available gross-capital-formation share than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the high-market quartile has the pre-registered outcome direction versus the low-market quartile at Welch p<=0.10. REFUTED if the opposite direction is significant at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; insufficient group coverage is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      heritage_market_cross_section_heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
183 countries · 2024 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Welch top-vs-bottom quartile mean contrast. This is a screen for broad market-order associations, not a causal policy effect estimate.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
investment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
latest_available_country_level_since_2018
tax_burden
treatment
heritage_ief:ief_paneltier 4
2024_component_score:tax_burden

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — heritage_tax_burden_investment_share_current_gap

Verdict: PARTIAL — gap sign/magnitude not decisive (diff=2.161, p=0.1262)

Design

  • Heritage component: tax_burden using release year 2024.
  • Comparison: top 25% vs bottom 25% of market-score countries.
  • Outcome source: world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS latest available country observation since 2018.

Estimate

  • High-market mean: 25.365575350990877 over 39 countries.
  • Low-market mean: 23.204121565010883 over 39 countries.
  • Difference, high minus low: 2.161453785979994.
  • Welch p-value: 0.12615277430225716.

Caveat

This is a candidate cross-sectional screen. It is useful for broad Austrian/ordoliberal market-order triage, but it is not a causal design and should not be scoreboard-promoted without robustness checks.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.