IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024

Countries escaping middle income into high income are more likely to combine export openness with domestic market competition than export promotion with persistent domestic protection.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (4)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (4)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 29 country or place units from 1950 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Export openness
  • Domestic market competition
What we checked
  • High income escape dummy
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024
1007550250195019872024KORTWNSGPHKGCHLMYSTHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_income_escape_dummy across 29 sampled countries over 1950–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:50Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries escaping middle income into high income are more likely to combine export openness with domestic market competition than export promotion with persistent domestic protection.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is refuted if the interaction between export openness and low domestic protection (or high competition) is not positive and significant at p<0.10 in predicting high-income escape, or if export promotion combined with high domestic protection performs equally well.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_interaction_openness_competition
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
29 countries · 1950 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE or conditional logit for escaping middle income, with interaction between export openness and domestic competition. Tests whether the combination outperforms export promotion with domestic protection.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_income_escape_dummy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
indicator_crossing_threshold
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
export_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
domestic_market_competition
treatment
oecd_pmr:pmrtier 4
level
tariff_protection_avg
treatment
wits:tariff_averagetier 2
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
maddison:real_gdp_pctier 3
log
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
human_capital
control
owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870tier 2
level
manufacturing_value_added_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — high_income_escape_market_openness_1950_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (4)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries escaping middle income into high income are more likely to combine export openness with domestic market competition than export promotion with persistent domestic protection.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is refuted if the interaction between export openness and low domestic protection (or high competition) is not positive and significant at p<0.10 in predicting high-income escape, or if export promotion combined with high domestic protection performs equally well.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_interaction_openness_competition

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (4)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → high_income_escape_dummy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → export_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • oecd_pmr:pmr → domestic_market_competition (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=14)
  • world_bank_wits:tariff_average → tariff_protection_avg (treatment, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • maddison:real_gdp_pc → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)

Variables missing data

  • owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870 (controls, name=human_capital) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

WITS tariff data has gaps for many countries before 1990; interpolation and UN Comtrade alternative used. OECD PMR coverage limited before 1998 for emerging economies.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.