IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison

Hong Kong's long-run income convergence to the productivity frontier without classic industrial policy (sectoral targeting, directed credit, national champions, or SOE promotion) matches or exceeds that of developmentalist East Asian comparators after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness.

Between 1960 and 2020, Hong Kong's GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity performance are statistically indistinguishable from or superior to South Korea's, Taiwan's, and Singapore's, despite the absence of state-led sectoral coordination, suggesting that market institutions and trade openness can substitute for industrial policy in achieving frontier convergence.

REFUTEDengine/runs/hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison

REFUTED — coef=-0.06133 (sign opposite claim +), p=7.33e-15

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.06133 (sign opposite claim +), p=7.33e-15

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Industrial policy intensity
  • Economic freedom score
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita convergence gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison
1007550250196019902020HKGKORTWNJPNSGPMYSTHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 7 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:50Z

Hong Kong's long-run income convergence to the productivity frontier without classic industrial policy (sectoral targeting, directed credit, national champions, or SOE promotion) matches or exceeds that of developmentalist East Asian comparators after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness. Between 1960 and 2020, Hong Kong's GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity performance are statistically indistinguishable from or superior to South Korea's, Taiwan's, and Singapore's, despite the absence of state-led sectoral coordination, suggesting that market institutions and trade openness can substitute for industrial policy in achieving frontier convergence.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if Hong Kong's TFP growth or GDP per capita convergence is significantly lower (p < 0.10) than that of South Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore after controlling for initial income and human capital, or if industrial policy intensity carries a positive and significant coefficient that exceeds the economic freedom coefficient in the full panel.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_hk_vs_developmentalist_comparators_1960_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects with interaction between low industrial-policy intensity and high economic freedom.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap
outcome
pwt:rgdpetier 3
constructed_gap_to_usa
industrial_policy_intensity
treatment
constructed:soe_share_plus_sectoral_subsidy_indextier 5
level
economic_freedom_score
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level
log_initial_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_lagged_5y
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — hong_kong_no_industrial_policy_frontier_comparison

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.06133 (sign opposite claim +), p=7.33e-15

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Hong Kong's long-run income convergence to the productivity frontier without classic industrial policy (sectoral targeting, directed credit, national champions, or SOE promotion) matches or exceeds that of developmentalist East Asian comparators after controlling for initial income, human capital, and trade openness. Between 1960 and 2020, Hong Kong's GDP per capita growth and total factor productivity performance are statistically indistinguishable from or superior to South Korea's, Taiwan's, and Singapore's, despite the absence of state-led sectoral coordination, suggesting that market institutions and trade openness can substitute for industrial policy in achieving frontier convergence.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if Hong Kong's TFP growth or GDP per capita convergence is significantly lower (p < 0.10) than that of South Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore after controlling for initial income and human capital, or if industrial policy intensity carries a positive and significant coefficient that exceeds the economic freedom coefficient in the full panel.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_hk_vs_developmentalist_comparators_1960_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.06133
  • Std error: 0.006154
  • p-value: 7.33e-15
  • Observations: 95, countries: 5
  • Within R²: 0.905
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpe → gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → economic_freedom_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:soe_share_plus_sectoral_subsidy_index (treatment, name=industrial_policy_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Hong Kong's industrial policy intensity is near zero by construction, so the test relies on cross-country comparison rather than within-country variation. Synthetic control methods using entrepôt economies may improve causal identification.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.