IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage

Real disposable wage growth for median earners is higher in metropolitan areas and countries with more flexible housing supply (lower regulatory barriers to new construction, higher land-use elasticity) than in otherwise-similar peers with restrictive zoning, even when headline GDP growth is comparable.

The mechanism is that flexible housing supply prevents rent extraction by incumbent owners, preserving purchasing power of wages over housing consumption.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'housing_supply_elasticity' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'housing_supply_elasticity' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 24 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Housing supply elasticity
  • Regulatory barriers index
What we checked
  • Real median disposable wage
  • Real wage purchasing power
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_median_disposable_wage across 24 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Real disposable wage growth for median earners is higher in metropolitan areas and countries with more flexible housing supply (lower regulatory barriers to new construction, higher land-use elasticity) than in otherwise-similar peers with restrictive zoning, even when headline GDP growth is comparable. The mechanism is that flexible housing supply prevents rent extraction by incumbent owners, preserving purchasing power of wages over housing consumption.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on housing-supply elasticity is negative and significant (p < 0.10) in a panel FE regression of real median wage growth, or if the coefficient is positive but not significant after controlling for GDP growth and unemployment. The claim requires that housing flexibility adds explanatory power beyond aggregate growth.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
24 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_median_disposable_wage
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
log
real_wage_purchasing_power
outcome
constructed:median_wage_deflated_by_cpi_and_rent_indextier 5
log
housing_supply_elasticity
treatment
constructed:saiiz_housing_supply_elasticity; saiz_2010tier 5
level
regulatory_barriers_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
real_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
mortgage_credit_gdp
control
imf:household_debttier 2
level
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'housing_supply_elasticity' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Real disposable wage growth for median earners is higher in metropolitan areas and countries with more flexible housing supply (lower regulatory barriers to new construction, higher land-use elasticity) than in otherwise-similar peers with restrictive zoning, even when headline GDP growth is comparable. The mechanism is that flexible housing supply prevents rent extraction by incumbent owners, preserving purchasing power of wages over housing consumption.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on housing-supply elasticity is negative and significant (p < 0.10) in a panel FE regression of real median wage growth, or if the coefficient is positive but not significant after controlling for GDP growth and unemployment. The claim requires that housing flexibility adds explanatory power beyond aggregate growth.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_housing_supply_flexibility_real_wage_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'housing_supply_elasticity' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_EARNINGS@DF_EARNINGS,1.0 → real_median_disposable_wage (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=761)
  • constructed:saiiz_housing_supply_elasticity; saiz_2010 → housing_supply_elasticity (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=744)
  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → regulatory_barriers_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:median_wage_deflated_by_cpi_and_rent_index (outcome, name=real_wage_purchasing_power) — vintage not on disk
  • imf_weo:household_debt (controls, name=mortgage_credit_gdp) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

v2 wiring: Added Eurostat NUTS2 GDP, unemployment, education, and population panels across 24 OECD countries as regional-level evidence. BIS WS_SPP provides metro housing prices. Supply elasticity index (Saiz) still manual.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.