IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·housing_supply_freedom_affordability

More permissive housing supply regulation proxies predict lower house-price pressure over long windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/housing_supply_freedom_affordability

PARTIAL — coef=-3.927, p=0.716 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-3.927, p=0.716 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1996 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/housing_supply_freedom_affordability
1007550250199620102024USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1996–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for housing_supply_freedom_affordability. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/housing_supply_freedom_affordability/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:13Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

More permissive housing supply regulation proxies predict lower house-price pressure over long windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_housing_supply_freedom_affordability
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1996 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — housing_supply_freedom_affordability

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-3.927, p=0.716 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: More permissive housing supply regulation proxies predict lower house-price pressure over long windows.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_housing_supply_freedom_affordability

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -3.927
  • Std error: 10.77
  • p-value: 0.716
  • Observations: 612, countries: 26
  • Within R²: 0.279
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_SPP → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:13+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.