IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance

Every documented hyperinflation episode since 1900 (Weimar Germany, post-WW2 Hungary, Yugoslavia 1990s, Zimbabwe 2000s, Venezuela 2010s-2020s, among others) was preceded by fiscal dominance — a state of affairs where monetary policy is subordinated to financing government deficits that cannot be financed by taxation or market-rate borrowing.

Monetary mismanagement alone, absent fiscal dominance, has not produced hyperinflation in the historical record.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fiscal dominance indicator is actually linked to better or worse monthly inflation rate from 1900 to 2025.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 14 country or place units from 1900 to 2025, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fiscal dominance indicator
What we checked
  • Monthly inflation rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance
1007550250190019632025DEUHUNYUGZWEVENBRAARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show monthly_inflation_rate across 14 sampled countries over 1900–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:16Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Every documented hyperinflation episode since 1900 (Weimar Germany, post-WW2 Hungary, Yugoslavia 1990s, Zimbabwe 2000s, Venezuela 2010s-2020s, among others) was preceded by fiscal dominance — a state of affairs where monetary policy is subordinated to financing government deficits that cannot be financed by taxation or market-rate borrowing. Monetary mismanagement alone, absent fiscal dominance, has not produced hyperinflation in the historical record.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if any documented hyperinflation episode (monthly inflation >= 50% per Cagan) occurred WITHOUT fiscal dominance being present in the preceding 24 months, as determined by the coding rule. A single counter-example falsifies the claim. v2 uses the local Hanke-Krus hyperinflation table and an explicit qualitative fiscal-dominance episode ledger. Full support requires every Hanke row to parse and every parsed episode to code fiscal_dominance=true. If all parsed episodes code true but some Hanke rows remain parser-pending, the result is partial rather than fully supported.

formal test & threshold
test:      hyperinflation_episode_fiscal_dominance_coverage
threshold: support if 100% of all Hanke rows parse and code fiscal_dominance=true; partial if parsed rows are all true but parser-pending rows remain; refute if any parsed episode codes false

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
episode
Sample
14 countries · 1900 – 2025
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive episode-level coding + qualitative reasoning. Panel treatment is cross-episode: does the fiscal-dominance indicator equal 1 for every Cagan-threshold episode?

Data

VariableSourceTransform
monthly_inflation_rate
outcome
hanke:hyperinflation_tabletier 3
raw_monthly_percent
fiscal_dominance_indicator
treatment
constructed:(central_bank_direct_gov_financing > 0) AND (tax_revenue < 50% of gov_expenditure) AND (external_market_access = impairetier 5
—
currency_regime
control
ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:era_classification_monthly_1940_2019tier 3
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Every documented hyperinflation episode since 1900 (Weimar Germany, post-WW2 Hungary, Yugoslavia 1990s, Zimbabwe 2000s, Venezuela 2010s-2020s, among others) was preceded by fiscal dominance — a state of affairs where monetary policy is subordinated to financing government deficits that cannot be financed by taxation or market-rate borrowing. Monetary mismanagement alone, absent fiscal dominance, has not produced hyperinflation in the historical record.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if any documented hyperinflation episode (monthly inflation >= 50% per Cagan) occurred WITHOUT fiscal dominance being present in the preceding 24 months, as determined by the coding rule. A single counter-example falsifies the claim. v2 uses the local Hanke-Krus hyperinflation table and an explicit qualitative fiscal-dominance episode ledger. Full support requires every Hanke row to parse and every parsed episode to code fiscal_dominance=true. If all parsed episodes code true but some Hanke rows remain parser-pending, the result is partial rather than fully supported.
  • Falsification test: hyperinflation_episode_fiscal_dominance_coverage

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: (central_bank_direct_gov_financing > 0) AND (tax_revenue < 50% of gov_expenditure) AND (external_market_access = impaired) → fiscal_dominance_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1764)

Variables missing data

  • hanke:hyperinflation_table (outcome, name=monthly_inflation_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:era_classification_monthly_1940_2019 (controls, name=currency_regime) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:16+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Per mega-spec D.1.5 scope decision, this hypothesis is part of the framework's "defensible monetary scope" and explicitly does NOT extend to claims about fractional reserve banking being inherently unstable or to a gold-standard endorsement. The claim is narrowly about hyperinflation's necessary fiscal precondition.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.