IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes

Indigenous-managed territories (documented across Amazon basin, Canadian First Nations, Australian Indigenous Protected Areas) retain higher biodiversity and lower deforestation than state-protected or privately-held land of matched biome.

PARTIALengine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes

PARTIAL — ATT=-3.288, p=0.202, N=70, treated_countries=5 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether indigenous managed indicator is actually linked to better or worse forest cover loss pct per year from 2000 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=-3.288, p=0.202, N=70, treated_countries=5 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for territory and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Indigenous managed indicator
  • Years since designation
What we checked
  • Forest cover loss pct per year
  • Protected area extent
  • Deforestation rate amazon basin
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes
1007550250200020122023BRAPERCOLECUBOLCANAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show forest_cover_loss_pct_per_year across 7 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:47:02Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Indigenous-managed territories (documented across Amazon basin, Canadian First Nations, Australian Indigenous Protected Areas) retain higher biodiversity and lower deforestation than state-protected or privately-held land of matched biome.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on parcel-level annual forest-cover loss (indigenous-managed minus biome-matched control parcels, 2000-2023, pooled across BRA/PER/COL/ECU/BOL/CAN/AUS) is at most -20% in relative terms (i.e. indigenous-managed parcels lose <=80% of the forest-cover that matched controls lose) AND the effect does not reverse sign in the Australian IPA subset. REFUTED if the pooled ATT is positive OR the sign reverses in the IPA subset. INFORMATIVE: country-level dispersion of the ATT (reported in diagnostics) and pre-trend test on the 5-year pre-designation event-time leads. METHOD_VALID: parcel-level NOAA-VIIRS forest-cover (or Hansen GFC) composite available with at least 5,000 parcel-years per country; indigenous-territory designation dates compiled from FUNAI / DCCEEW / First Nations registries for at least 80% of treated parcels. Failure of METHOD_VALID emits `inconclusive (data gap on <publisher>:<series>)` rather than `refuted`.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_indigenous_vs_matched_parcels_2000_2023
threshold: PRIMARY: pooled CS-DiD ATT on annual forest-cover loss <= -20% relative to matched controls AND Australian-IPA-subset ATT same-signed as pooled.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
territory, year
Clustering
territory
Sample
7 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Staggered DiD comparing indigenous-managed parcels to matched state-protected and private parcels in the same biomes, using designation dates as treatment timing. Outcomes: deforestation rate, biodiversity index. Matching on biome, slope, accessibility pre-designation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
forest_cover_loss_pct_per_year
outcome
noaa_viirs:forest_covertier 2
faostat:forest_areatier 2
pct_loss_yoy
protected_area_extent
outcome
faostat:protected_area_km2tier 2
world_bank_wdi:ER.LND.PTLD.ZStier 2
pct_total_land
deforestation_rate_amazon_basin
outcome
noaa_viirs:active_fire_amazontier 2
hectares_lost_per_year
indigenous_managed_indicator
treatment
constructed:parcel-year indicator = 1 from official designation date of indigenous territory / IPA / First-Nations comanagement; 0 ptier 5
binary
years_since_designation
treatment
derived: parcel_year_minus_designation_year (negative for pre-treatment)integer_years
parcel_slope_mean
control
noaa_viirs:srtm_elevation_derivedtier 2
degrees
parcel_distance_to_road_km
control
manual: OSM road-network distance, snapshot-2010km
country_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
real_log
country_agriculture_value_added
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
faostat:agricultural_value_addedtier 2
pct_gdp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=-3.288, p=0.202, N=70, treated_countries=5 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Indigenous-managed territories (documented across Amazon basin, Canadian First Nations, Australian Indigenous Protected Areas) retain higher biodiversity and lower deforestation than state-protected or privately-held land of matched biome.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on parcel-level annual forest-cover loss (indigenous-managed minus biome-matched control parcels, 2000-2023, pooled across BRA/PER/COL/ECU/BOL/CAN/AUS) is at most -20% in relative terms (i.e. indigenous-managed parcels lose <=80% of the forest-cover that matched controls lose) AND the effect does not reverse sign in the Australian IPA subset. REFUTED if the pooled ATT is positive OR the sign reverses in the IPA subset. INFORMATIVE: country-level dispersion of the ATT (reported in diagnostics) and pre-trend test on the 5-year pre-designation event-time leads. METHOD_VALID: parcel-level NOAA-VIIRS forest-cover (or Hansen GFC) composite available with at least 5,000 parcel-years per country; indigenous-territory designation dates compiled from FUNAI / DCCEEW / First Nations registries for at least 80% of treated parcels. Failure of METHOD_VALID emits inconclusive (data gap on <publisher>:<series>) rather than refuted.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -3.2875880179835386
  • std_error: 2.5746939250022005
  • p_value: 0.20164285529943493
  • n_obs: 70
  • n_countries: 5
  • r_squared_within: 0.9722297881328522
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 5
  • cohort_years: [2010]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • noaa_viirs:forest_cover; faostat:forest_area → forest_cover_loss_pct_per_year (outcome, n=290)
  • faostat:protected_area_km2; world_bank_wdi:ER.LND.PTLD.ZS → protected_area_extent (outcome, n=290)
  • constructed: parcel-year indicator = 1 from official designation date of indigenous territory / IPA / First-Nations comanagement; 0 prior or for matched non-indigenous parcels → indigenous_managed_indicator (treatment, n=168)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → country_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS; faostat:agricultural_value_added → country_agriculture_value_added (controls, n=10968)

Missing data

  • noaa_viirs:active_fire_amazon (composite product covering BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL) (outcome)
  • derived: parcel_year_minus_designation_year (negative for pre-treatment) (treatment)
  • noaa_viirs:srtm_elevation_derived (controls)
  • manual: OSM road-network distance, snapshot-2010 (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:47:02+00:00

Notes

Maps the eco-socialist school's indigenous-managed-land-outperforms-state-protected claim to a staggered Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD on parcel-level satellite forest-cover data with biome-matched controls. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.