IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality

Industrial policy outcomes are bimodal by governance capacity: high-capacity states (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) produce positive returns; low-capacity states produce rent-capture and white-elephants.

PARTIALengine/runs/industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality

PARTIAL — coef=+6.549e-16, p=0.445; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+6.549e-16, p=0.445; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 24 country or place units from 1971 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Basic government quality
  • Rule of law
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Productivity index
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality
1007550250197119952019KORTWNSGPJPNCHNMYSTHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 24 sampled countries over 1971–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Empirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Industrial policy outcomes are bimodal by governance capacity: high-capacity states (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) produce positive returns; low-capacity states produce rent-capture and white-elephants.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the industrial-policy-by-governance interaction is positive at p<0.10 for manufacturing share or TFP growth, and the low-governance marginal effect is not positive at p<0.10. It is REFUTED if the interaction is non-positive at p<0.10, or if low-governance industrial policy has an equal or larger positive marginal association than high-governance industrial policy. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL because the broad bimodality claim is not decisively identified.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE of manufacturing-share growth on industrial-policy intensity x governance-capacity (WGI) interaction, country and year FE, 1971-2023; falsified if interaction term not positive at p<0.05 above median capacity.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
24 countries · 1971 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of industrial-policy episodes interacted with a governance-capacity index (state capacity, rule of law, bureaucratic quality). Outcome: manufacturing-share growth and TFP. Tests for the bimodal interaction term: positive returns above a capacity threshold, rent-capture below.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
treatment
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
rule_of_law
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
control_of_corruption
treatment
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — industrial_policy_governance_capacity_conditionality

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+6.549e-16, p=0.445; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Industrial policy outcomes are bimodal by governance capacity: high-capacity states (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) produce positive returns; low-capacity states produce rent-capture and white-elephants.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the industrial-policy-by-governance interaction is positive at p<0.10 for manufacturing share or TFP growth, and the low-governance marginal effect is not positive at p<0.10. It is REFUTED if the interaction is non-positive at p<0.10, or if low-governance industrial policy has an equal or larger positive marginal association than high-governance industrial policy. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL because the broad bimodality claim is not decisively identified.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE of manufacturing-share growth on industrial-policy intensity x governance-capacity (WGI) interaction, country and year FE, 1971-2023; falsified if interaction term not positive at p<0.05 above median capacity.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +6.549e-16
  • Std error: 8.567e-16
  • p-value: 0.445
  • Observations: 387, countries: 19
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • wgi:CC.EST → control_of_corruption (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5201)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Notes

Seeded from an empirical-pragmatist claim that industrial-policy returns are bimodal in state capacity. Cross-country panel with capacity interaction; human review needed for governance-capacity index choice and the bimodality threshold.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.