IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve

Inflation expectations remained anchored through the 2008–2020 period in economies with credible inflation-targeting central banks, producing a flatter short-run Phillips curve than the 1970s relationship.

PARTIALengine/runs/inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve

PARTIAL — cumulative_effect=+178.7, h=5, p_h=nan (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether unemployment gap is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation from 1970 to 2020.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. cumulative_effect=+178.7, h=5, p_h=nan (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a local projections design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Unemployment gap
  • Inflation targeting regime
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
  • Cpi core inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve
1007550250197019952020USAGBRCANAUSNZLSWEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 11 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:07:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Inflation expectations remained anchored through the 2008–2020 period in economies with credible inflation-targeting central banks, producing a flatter short-run Phillips curve than the 1970s relationship.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Local-projection IRFs of CPI to unemployment-gap shocks h=1..16 quarters comparing 1970s pre-IT vs post-2000 IT regime; post-2000 slope coefficient lower in absolute value with p<0.10 supports.

Method

Template
local_projections
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Local-projection IRFs of CPI to unemployment-gap shocks at h = 1..16 quarters, comparing the 1970s pre-IT regime against the post-2000 inflation-targeting regime. Test: slope coefficient on unemployment gap is significantly flatter in IT regime. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
fred:CPIAUCSLtier 1
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
ecb:ICPtier 1
pct_change_yoy
cpi_core_inflation
outcome
fred:CPILFESLtier 1
ecb:ICPtier 1
pct_change_yoy
unemployment_gap
treatment
fred:UNRATEtier 1
oecd:OECD.ECO.MADtier 2
ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RTtier 2
deviation_from_natu
inflation_targeting_regime
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from each country's IT-adoption year (NZL 1990, CAN 1991, GBR 1992, SWE 1993, AUS 1993, USA implicit 2012, EZtier 5
binary
inflation_expectations_5y
treatment
fred:T5YIEtier 1
ecb:financial_markets_inflation_linked_swapstier 1
level
oil_price
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff
import_price_index
control
fred:IRtier 1
oecd:OECD.ECO.MADtier 2
pct_change_yoy
output_gap
control
oecd:OECD.ECO.MADtier 2
level_pct

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — inflation_expectations_anchoring_flattens_phillips_curve

Verdict: PARTIAL — cumulative_effect=+178.7, h=5, p_h=nan (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Inflation expectations remained anchored through the 2008–2020 period in economies with credible inflation-targeting central banks, producing a flatter short-run Phillips curve than the 1970s relationship.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Local-projections IRF

  • Method: Jordà local projections (TWFE, country-clustered)
  • Cumulative effect: +178.7
  • Final-horizon p-value: nan

| h | β | SE | p | n | |---|---|---|---|---| | 0 | +27.96 | inf | 1 | 51 | | 1 | +26.84 | inf | 1 | 50 | | 2 | +29.24 | inf | 1 | 49 | | 3 | +31.05 | nan | nan | 48 | | 4 | +31.7 | nan | nan | 47 | | 5 | +31.89 | nan | nan | 46 |

Variables resolved

  • fred:CPIAUCSL; world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; ecb:ICP → cpi_inflation (outcome, n=80)
  • fred:CPILFESL; ecb:ICP → cpi_core_inflation (outcome, n=70)
  • fred:UNRATE; oecd:OECD.ECO.MAD,DSD_KEI@DF_KEI,1.0; ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RT → unemployment_gap (treatment, n=79)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from each country's IT-adoption year (NZL 1990, CAN 1991, GBR 1992, SWE 1993, AUS 1993, USA implicit 2012, EZ implicit 1999) → inflation_targeting_regime (treatment, n=561)
  • fred:T5YIE; ecb:financial_markets_inflation_linked_swaps → inflation_expectations_5y (treatment, n=24)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price (controls, n=396)
  • fred:IR; oecd:OECD.ECO.MAD,DSD_KEI@DF_KEI,1.0 → import_price_index (controls, n=495)

Generated by scripts/run_local_projections.py at 2026-04-30T15:07:45+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from New Keynesian view that credible IT anchored expectations and flattened the Phillips curve post-2008. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.