IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·informality_market_entry_barriers

Informal employment as a share of total non-agricultural employment persists at higher levels in countries with high entry barriers and burdensome product-market regulation (high OECD PMR, high Doing Business cost of starting a business), even when the state invests heavily in development projects and public infrastructure.

The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/informality_market_entry_barriers

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_E; world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_E; world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Entry barrier index
  • Cost starting business pct income
What we checked
  • Informal employment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/informality_market_entry_barriers
1007550250199020052020BRAMEXCOLPERARGCHLZAF
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show informal_employment_share across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for informality_market_entry_barriers. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/informality_market_entry_barriers/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:34Z

Informal employment as a share of total non-agricultural employment persists at higher levels in countries with high entry barriers and burdensome product-market regulation (high OECD PMR, high Doing Business cost of starting a business), even when the state invests heavily in development projects and public infrastructure. The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if public investment or infrastructure quality has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on informality larger in magnitude than the positive coefficient on entry barriers, or if entry barriers are negatively and significantly associated with informality.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_informality_entry_barriers_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
informal_employment_share
outcome
ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_Etier 2
world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZStier 2
level
entry_barrier_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
level
cost_starting_business_pct_income
treatment
world_bank_wdi:IC.REG.DURStier 2
level
public_investment_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level
infrastructure_quality_index
control
constructed:wef_gci_infrastructure; world_bank_wdi:IS.ROD.DNST.K2tier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
tax_burden_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — informality_market_entry_barriers

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_E; world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Informal employment as a share of total non-agricultural employment persists at higher levels in countries with high entry barriers and burdensome product-market regulation (high OECD PMR, high Doing Business cost of starting a business), even when the state invests heavily in development projects and public infrastructure. The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if public investment or infrastructure quality has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on informality larger in magnitude than the positive coefficient on entry barriers, or if entry barriers are negatively and significantly associated with informality.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_informality_entry_barriers_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_E; world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS']

Variables resolved

  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → entry_barrier_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:IC.REG.DURS → cost_starting_business_pct_income (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=930)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → public_investment_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → tax_burden_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)

Variables missing data

  • ilostat:EMP_TEMP_SEX_ECO_NB_E; world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS (outcome, name=informal_employment_share) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:wef_gci_infrastructure; world_bank_wdi:IS.ROD.DNST.K2 (controls, name=infrastructure_quality_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.