IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return

State-led infrastructure investment (transport, energy, water, telecommunications) has high economic returns in countries below basic access thresholds (paved-road density <20 km per 100 km2, electricity access <80%, clean water access <90%), confirming developmentalist catch-up logic.

Returns are measured by subsequent GDP growth, firm productivity, and agricultural yield improvements in connected regions, over 1990-2020. The claim is adversarial: it validates a core developmentalist argument under specific boundary conditions.

PARTIALengine/runs/infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return

PARTIAL — coef=+0.009996, p=0.883 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.009996, p=0.883 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Infrastructure access gap
  • Public infrastructure investment income
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Agricultural productivity growth
  • Firm productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return
1007550250199020052020BGDINDIDNPHLVNMKENTZA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:52Z

State-led infrastructure investment (transport, energy, water, telecommunications) has high economic returns in countries below basic access thresholds (paved-road density <20 km per 100 km2, electricity access <80%, clean water access <90%), confirming developmentalist catch-up logic. Returns are measured by subsequent GDP growth, firm productivity, and agricultural yield improvements in connected regions, over 1990-2020. The claim is adversarial: it validates a core developmentalist argument under specific boundary conditions.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if public infrastructure investment has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) association with GDP or productivity growth in below-threshold countries, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero after controlling for governance and initial income.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_infrastructure_investment_below_threshold_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
agricultural_productivity_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:EA.PRD.AGRI.KDtier 2
level
firm_productivity_growth
outcome
constructed:world_bank_enterprise_surveys_tfptier 5
level
infrastructure_access_gap
treatment
constructed:road_density_electricity_water_compositetier 5
level
public_infrastructure_investment_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
political_stability
control
wgi:PV.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — infrastructure_gap_state_investment_high_return

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.009996, p=0.883 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: State-led infrastructure investment (transport, energy, water, telecommunications) has high economic returns in countries below basic access thresholds (paved-road density <20 km per 100 km2, electricity access <80%, clean water access <90%), confirming developmentalist catch-up logic. Returns are measured by subsequent GDP growth, firm productivity, and agricultural yield improvements in connected regions, over 1990-2020. The claim is adversarial: it validates a core developmentalist argument under specific boundary conditions.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if public infrastructure investment has a negative and significant (p < 0.10) association with GDP or productivity growth in below-threshold countries, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero after controlling for governance and initial income.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_infrastructure_investment_below_threshold_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.009996
  • Std error: 0.06789
  • p-value: 0.883
  • Observations: 457, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.0121
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → public_infrastructure_investment_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:PV.EST → political_stability (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5255)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:EA.PRD.AGRI.KD (outcome, name=agricultural_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:world_bank_enterprise_surveys_tfp (outcome, name=firm_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:road_density_electricity_water_composite (treatment, name=infrastructure_access_gap) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:52+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.