IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay

Persistent broad subsidy and government-consumption burdens predict weaker long-run household consumption growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay

REFUTED — coef=+150 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0305

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether market or intervention proxy is actually linked to better or worse qol or prosperity outcome from 1980 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+150 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0305

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay
1007550250198020022023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:23Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Persistent broad subsidy and government-consumption burdens predict weaker long-run household consumption growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+150 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0305

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Persistent broad subsidy and government-consumption burdens predict weaker long-run household consumption growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_interventionist_subsidy_consumption_decay

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +150
  • Std error: 69.22
  • p-value: 0.0305
  • Observations: 773, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.0517
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8501)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:23+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.