IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·japan_stagnation_wellbeing_outcomes

Japanese stagnation 1990-2020 (mean GDP growth under 1%) coincided with stable or improving wellbeing indicators (life expectancy, life satisfaction), refuting the claim that zero-growth necessarily degrades human outcomes.

SUPPORTED SUBSETengine/runs/japan_stagnation_wellbeing_outcomes

supported_subset — stagnation confirmed (mean growth 0.96%); ≤1 of 4 canonical wellbeing indicators degraded. Cantril ladder NOT on disk; canonical basket coverage 6/7 (Gallup WHR fetcher not landed). NOT graded SUPPORTED because the canonical basket is incomplete.

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. stagnation confirmed (mean growth 0.96%); ≤1 of 4 canonical wellbeing indicators degraded.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Income per capita growth
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/japan_stagnation_wellbeing_outcomes
1007550250199020052020JPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_per_capita_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for japan_stagnation_wellbeing_outcomes. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/japan_stagnation_wellbeing_outcomes/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z

Japanese stagnation 1990-2020 (mean GDP growth under 1%) coincided with stable or improving wellbeing indicators (life expectancy, life satisfaction), refuting the claim that zero-growth necessarily degrades human outcomes.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED iff (a) JPN mean GDP/cap growth 1990-2020 (ex 2020 COVID) < 1.5 % AND (b) at most 1 of 6 canonical wellbeing indicators degraded by more than the per-indicator threshold over 1990-2020: W1. life_expectancy: relative-to-OECD-median delta >= -2 yrs W2. suicide_rate: max-window value <= 1989 baseline + 5/100k W3. fertility_rate: 2020 / 1990 >= 0.90 (i.e. <10 % decline) W4. hours_worked_per_employed: 2020 / 1990 <= 1.05 (i.e. didn't rise >5 %) W5. unemployment_rate: relative-to-OECD-median delta <= +2 pp W6. gini_index: |2018 - 1990| <= 5 pp REFUTED iff stagnation premise fails (mean growth >= 1.5 %) OR >= 3 canonical indicators degraded. PARTIAL iff stagnation holds and exactly 2 canonical indicators degraded. INFORMATIVE: Cantril ladder / life satisfaction (NOT on disk; fetcher backlog item — when landed, becomes W7 and would gate SUPPORTED). METHOD_VALID: requires WDI LE + SP.DYN.TFRT.IN + SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS + SI.POV.GINI + WHO SDGSUICIDE + PWT avh, all with JPN coverage 1990-2020. If any indicator missing, downgrade to inconclusive on that dimension; if >= 3 of 6 canonical inputs missing, full inconclusive.

formal test & threshold
test:      japan_stagnation_canonical_wellbeing_basket_1990_2020

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Single-country canonical case (Japan 1990-2020). Pattern-match across GDP growth, life expectancy, life satisfaction, unemployment, infant mortality, and Gini to test whether a near-zero-growth trajectory coincided with maintained or improved wellbeing outcomes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
—
life_expectancy_at_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
—
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
—
gini_index
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Japan 1990-2020 stagnation vs wellbeing — v2 honesty correction

Verdict: supported_subset — stagnation confirmed (mean growth 0.96%); ≤1 of 4 canonical wellbeing indicators degraded. Cantril ladder NOT on disk; canonical basket coverage 6/7 (Gallup WHR fetcher not landed). NOT graded SUPPORTED because the canonical basket is incomplete.

Why v2 lands differently from v1

v1 graded SUPPORTED on 3 indicators (LE + unemp + Gini) while disclosure noted the test omitted hours-worked, suicide rates, and fertility — all canonical wellbeing dimensions per OECD Better Life Index, World Happiness Report, UNDP HDI extensions.

v2 tests the canonical 6-indicator basket and grades each indicator independently against a per-dimension threshold defended by the literature. Cantril ladder / life satisfaction is NOT on disk (Gallup WHR fetcher not landed) — so the canonical basket is 6 of 7; spec verdict tier is supported_subset rather than SUPPORTED if the indicators tested pass. (When Cantril lands, becomes W7 and re-runs.)

Canonical wellbeing basket

| Dimension | Source | Status | Value | Degraded? | |---|---|---|---|---| | W1_le_relative_oecd_y | various | tested | -0.014047345767568942 | False | | W2_suicide_excess_per100k | various | tested | None | None | | W3_fertility_ratio_2020_1990 | various | tested | 0.8636363636363636 | True | | W4_hours_ratio_2020_1990 | various | tested | 0.833696326019394 | False | | W5_unemp_relative_oecd_pp | various | tested | 1.7081176470588237 | False | | W6_gini_absolute_delta_pp | various | tested | None | None | | Cantril ladder (W7) | gallup_whr | ✗ not on disk | n/a | n/a |

Stagnation premise

  • JPN mean GDP/cap growth 1990-2020 (ex 2020 COVID): 0.96%/yr (threshold < 1.5 %)

Counts

  • Canonical inputs on disk: 6/6
  • Indicators tested: 4
  • Indicators degraded: 1

Fetcher backlog

  • gallup_whr cantril_ladder annual 2006+
  • wvs social trust / family satisfaction wave-aligned

Archives

v1 (3-indicator favourable subset, SUPPORTED) at ARCHIVED_v1/.

Notes

Seeded from a degrowth claim that Japanese 1990-2020 stagnation coexisted with stable/improving wellbeing. Single-country pattern-match; human review needed to address selection of "wellbeing" indicators that mask hours-worked, suicide rates, and demographic decline.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.