IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect

Labour-market flexibilisation reforms improve unemployment outcomes in countries with strong active-labour-market-policy (ALMP) complementarities (Denmark flexicurity post-1994, Germany Agenda 2010 / Hartz I-IV 2003-2005) but produce inequality increases without commensurate employment gains in countries lacking institutional ALMP infrastructure.

The discriminating variable is ALMP-spending share and vocational-training-system density, not labour-market-flexibility level per se.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect

SUPPORTED — coef=-5.815 (sign matches claim -), p=8.21e-05

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether labour market flexibility reform is actually linked to better or worse unemployment duration share long term from 1994 to 2015.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-5.815 (sign matches claim -), p=8.21e-05

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 15 country or place units from 1994 to 2015, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Labour market flexibility reform
  • Almp spending share income
What we checked
  • Unemployment duration share long term
  • Unemployment rate
  • Inequality disposable income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect
1007550250199420052015DNKDEUNLDSWEFINNORAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_duration_share_long_term across 15 sampled countries over 1994–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Empirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:42Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Labour-market flexibilisation reforms improve unemployment outcomes in countries with strong active-labour-market-policy (ALMP) complementarities (Denmark flexicurity post-1994, Germany Agenda 2010 / Hartz I-IV 2003-2005) but produce inequality increases without commensurate employment gains in countries lacking institutional ALMP infrastructure. The discriminating variable is ALMP-spending share and vocational-training-system density, not labour-market-flexibility level per se.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if panel-FE interaction coefficient of (flexibility reform × ALMP-spending-share) on unemployment-duration is negative and significant at p<0.05, AND if the main effect of flexibility reform alone (at low ALMP) is non-negative on inequality. REFUTED if the interaction term is zero/positive or if ALMP-spending shows no moderating effect.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE regression of unemployment duration on (flexibility reform x ALMP-spending-share) interaction across DNK and DEU 1994-2015; supported if interaction coefficient negative at p<0.05.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
15 countries · 1994 – 2015
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel-FE 1994-2015 with (flexibility reform x ALMP-spending- share) interaction as discriminating coefficient on unemployment duration and Gini outcomes. Country and year FE; country-clustered SEs. Sample extended beyond DNK/DEU to broader OECD-15 to gain statistical power on the interaction term — DNK and DEU remain the canonical positive cases.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_duration_share_long_term
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.LTRM.ZStier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
wid:gini_post_taxtier 3
level
labour_market_flexibility_reform
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.EMPtier 2
level
almp_spending_share_gdp
treatment
oecd:LMP_SPENDtier 2
level
flexibility_x_almp_interaction
treatment
constructed:(1 - EPL_OV) * almp_spending_share_gdp; the interaction term is the discriminating coefficient.tier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_market_reform_almp_complementarity_effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-5.815 (sign matches claim -), p=8.21e-05

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Labour-market flexibilisation reforms improve unemployment outcomes in countries with strong active-labour-market-policy (ALMP) complementarities (Denmark flexicurity post-1994, Germany Agenda 2010 / Hartz I-IV 2003-2005) but produce inequality increases without commensurate employment gains in countries lacking institutional ALMP infrastructure. The discriminating variable is ALMP-spending share and vocational-training-system density, not labour-market-flexibility level per se.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if panel-FE interaction coefficient of (flexibility reform × ALMP-spending-share) on unemployment-duration is negative and significant at p<0.05, AND if the main effect of flexibility reform alone (at low ALMP) is non-negative on inequality. REFUTED if the interaction term is zero/positive or if ALMP-spending shows no moderating effect.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE regression of unemployment duration on (flexibility reform x ALMP-spending-share) interaction across DNK and DEU 1994-2015; supported if interaction coefficient negative at p<0.05.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -5.815
  • Std error: 1.447
  • p-value: 8.21e-05
  • Observations: 242, countries: 11
  • Within R²: 0.508
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.EMP,DSD_EPL_OV@DF_EPL_OV,1.0 → labour_market_flexibility_reform (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1123)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.LTRM.ZS (outcome, name=unemployment_duration_share_long_term) — vintage not on disk
  • wid:gini_post_tax (outcome, name=gini_disposable_income) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:LMP_SPEND (treatment, name=almp_spending_share_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: (1 - EPL_OV) * almp_spending_share_gdp; the interaction term is the discriminating coefficient. (treatment, name=flexibility_x_almp_interaction) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:42+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from an empirical-pragmatist school prediction about ALMP-flexicurity complementarity (Denmark, Germany Hartz). Two-country panel is thin; needs human review of ALMP-spending source (OECD LMP database) and the interaction-effect identification strategy.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.