IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment

Argentina's 2017 Macri-government labour-reform package (Vaca Muerta sector-specific reform, broader labour-cost reduction proposal partially blocked) failed to deliver a measurable formal-employment gain by 2019: synthetic-DiD gap on formal-employment share is statistically indistinguishable from zero against a Latin-American donor pool, falsifying the strong-pro-employment claim.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.642, |gap|/pre_sd=7.3, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether argentina macri 2017 reform is actually linked to better or worse formal employment share from 2010 to 2019.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2.642, |gap|/pre_sd=7.3, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2010 to 2019, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Argentina macri 2017 reform
What we checked
  • Formal employment share
  • Unemployment rate
  • Real wage index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment
1007550250201020152019ARGBRACHLMEXPERURYCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show formal_employment_share across 7 sampled countries over 2010–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Argentina's 2017 Macri-government labour-reform package (Vaca Muerta sector-specific reform, broader labour-cost reduction proposal partially blocked) failed to deliver a measurable formal-employment gain by 2019: synthetic-DiD gap on formal-employment share is statistically indistinguishable from zero against a Latin-American donor pool, falsifying the strong-pro-employment claim.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED (null/heterodox-favourable) if synth-DiD gap on Argentine formal-employment share is statistically indistinguishable from zero at p<0.10 by 2019. REFUTED if a positive formal-employment gap > +1.0 pp emerges at p<0.10 (pro-reform claim wins). PARTIAL if formal- employment gap is positive but < +0.5 pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Argentine formal-employment share 2017-2019 vs LATAM donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2010 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
formal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
real_wage_index
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
log
argentina_macri_2017_reform
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2017-Q4 Vaca Muerta + partial labour packagetier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
terms_of_trade_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
bis:reer_broad_arstier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_argentina_macri_2017_blue_collar_employment

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.642, |gap|/pre_sd=7.3, p_perm=0.714; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Argentina's 2017 Macri-government labour-reform package (Vaca Muerta sector-specific reform, broader labour-cost reduction proposal partially blocked) failed to deliver a measurable formal-employment gain by 2019: synthetic-DiD gap on formal-employment share is statistically indistinguishable from zero against a Latin-American donor pool, falsifying the strong-pro-employment claim.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED (null/heterodox-favourable) if synth-DiD gap on Argentine formal-employment share is statistically indistinguishable from zero at p<0.10 by 2019. REFUTED if a positive formal-employment gap > +1.0 pp emerges at p<0.10 (pro-reform claim wins). PARTIAL if formal- employment gap is positive but < +0.5 pp.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: ARG
  • event_year: 2017
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'URY': 0.5182, 'MEX': 0.295, 'PER': 0.1293, 'BRA': 0.0575, 'CHL': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 1.5638848155687874
  • pre_period_sd: 0.35955455245411116
  • mean_post_gap: 2.6418929644638123
  • end_period_gap: 3.115126596041791
  • post_period_years: [2017, 2019]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.7142857142857143
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2017-Q4 (Vaca Muerta hydrocarbons reform enacted; broader package introduced but stalled in Congress). Sample window stops 2019 to exclude COVID. The hypothesis is structured to favour the heterodox null — Macri-era reforms are widely viewed as not having produced labour- market gains under the simultaneous IMF-program austerity.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.