IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment

Colombia's 2002 Uribe-government labour reform (Law 789: working-day extension, overtime/holiday-premium reduction, dismissal-cost cuts) reduced the Colombian unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 2007 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, with formal-sector employment gaining and informality not worsening.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.534, |gap|/pre_sd=0.58, p_perm=0.714 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether colombia law 789 2002 is actually linked to better or worse unemployment rate from 1995 to 2010.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2.534, |gap|/pre_sd=0.58, p_perm=0.714 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1995 to 2010, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Colombia law 789 2002
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
  • Informal employment share
  • Employment to population ratio
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment
1007550250199520032010COLPERMEXBRACHLURYARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 7 sampled countries over 1995–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Colombia's 2002 Uribe-government labour reform (Law 789: working-day extension, overtime/holiday-premium reduction, dismissal-cost cuts) reduced the Colombian unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 2007 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, with formal-sector employment gaining and informality not worsening.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Colombian unemployment rate < -2.0 pp by 2007 AND informal-sector share gap is not statistically more positive than +1.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if unemployment gap is wrong-signed at p<0.10 OR informal-sector share rises > +2.0 pp (formalisation failure). PARTIAL if unemployment gap meets threshold but informal share also rises significantly.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Colombian unemployment rate and informal- sector share 2002-2007 vs LATAM donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1995 – 2010
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
informal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
colombia_law_789_2002
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2002-Q4 Law 789 enactmenttier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
terms_of_trade_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_colombia_2002_uribe_employment

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.534, |gap|/pre_sd=0.58, p_perm=0.714 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Colombia's 2002 Uribe-government labour reform (Law 789: working-day extension, overtime/holiday-premium reduction, dismissal-cost cuts) reduced the Colombian unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 2007 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, with formal-sector employment gaining and informality not worsening.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Colombian unemployment rate < -2.0 pp by 2007 AND informal-sector share gap is not statistically more positive than +1.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if unemployment gap is wrong-signed at p<0.10 OR informal-sector share rises > +2.0 pp (formalisation failure). PARTIAL if unemployment gap meets threshold but informal share also rises significantly.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: COL
  • event_year: 2002
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'CHL': 0.7135, 'BRA': 0.2865, 'PER': 0.0, 'MEX': 0.0, 'URY': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 6.490223557216463
  • pre_period_sd: 4.348409123433752
  • mean_post_gap: 2.5344490532138764
  • end_period_gap: 2.642380224443608
  • post_period_years: [2002, 2010]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.7142857142857143
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2002-Q4 (Law 789 enactment). Colombia 2002- 2007 is widely cited as a flexibilisation success but the donor-pool comparison is critical because the period coincides with the security-improvement-driven economic recovery under Uribe.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.