IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase

The Czech Republic's 2017-2019 staged minimum-wage rises (CZK 11,000/month 2017, 12,200 in 2018, 13,350 in 2019: approximately +21% nominal cumulative) did not produce a measurable employment-rate decline relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, while raising bottom-decile real wages by at least 12% by 2020.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-1.358, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.286; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-1.358, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.286; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2010 to 2021, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Czech minimum wage 2017 2019
What we checked
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Bottom decile real wage index
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase
1007550250201020162021CZEPOLHUNSVKROUSVNAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_to_population_ratio across 7 sampled countries over 2010–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Czech Republic's 2017-2019 staged minimum-wage rises (CZK 11,000/month 2017, 12,200 in 2018, 13,350 in 2019: approximately +21% nominal cumulative) did not produce a measurable employment-rate decline relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, while raising bottom-decile real wages by at least 12% by 2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Czech employment-rate is not statistically more negative than -0.5 pp at p<0.10 AND bottom-decile real-wage gap > +12% by 2020. REFUTED if employment-rate gap < -1.5 pp at p<0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Czech employment rate and bottom-decile real wage 2017-2020 vs Visegrad donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2010 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
bottom_decile_real_wage_index
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
czech_minimum_wage_2017_2019
treatment
constructed:cumulative indicator 2017-Q1 / 2018-Q1 / 2019-Q1 stage risestier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_czech_2018_minimum_wage_increase

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-1.358, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.286; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Czech Republic's 2017-2019 staged minimum-wage rises (CZK 11,000/month 2017, 12,200 in 2018, 13,350 in 2019: approximately +21% nominal cumulative) did not produce a measurable employment-rate decline relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, while raising bottom-decile real wages by at least 12% by 2020.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Czech employment-rate is not statistically more negative than -0.5 pp at p<0.10 AND bottom-decile real-wage gap > +12% by 2020. REFUTED if employment-rate gap < -1.5 pp at p<0.10.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CZE
  • event_year: 2017
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'POL': 0.6678, 'HUN': 0.2955, 'SVK': 0.0366, 'ROU': 0.0, 'SVN': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 2.9513844214860807
  • pre_period_sd: 1.2230007981930968
  • mean_post_gap: -1.3575084490450489
  • end_period_gap: -0.8204273837004017
  • post_period_years: [2017, 2021]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.2857142857142857
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment is the cumulative 2017-2019 stage rises. Czech case is informative because the labour market was exceptionally tight (unemployment <3%), so disemployment predictions face an unusually weak slack channel. Donor pool of Visegrad peers absorbs common labour-market tightness.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.