IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law

Hungary's 2018 "slave law" overtime amendment (Act CXVI/2018: raising annual overtime cap from 250 to 400 hours, allowing 3-year reference periods) effective 2019-Q1 raised the Hungarian average annual hours worked by at least 1.5% relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, but did not produce a measurable expansion in employment-rate or output growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.07569, |gap|/pre_sd=1, p_perm=0.857 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether hungary overtime law 2019 is actually linked to better or worse average annual hours worked from 2010 to 2021.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-0.07569, |gap|/pre_sd=1, p_perm=0.857 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2010 to 2021, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Hungary overtime law 2019
What we checked
  • Average annual hours worked
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Real income per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law
1007550250201020162021HUNPOLCZESVKROUSVNAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show average_annual_hours_worked across 7 sampled countries over 2010–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Hungary's 2018 "slave law" overtime amendment (Act CXVI/2018: raising annual overtime cap from 250 to 400 hours, allowing 3-year reference periods) effective 2019-Q1 raised the Hungarian average annual hours worked by at least 1.5% relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, but did not produce a measurable expansion in employment-rate or output growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Hungarian average annual hours worked > +1.5% by 2020 AND employment-rate gap is not significantly positive at p<0.10. REFUTED if hours gap < +0.5% OR employment-rate gap also rises significantly (joint expansion claim, undermining the steelman intensive- margin-only reading).

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Hungarian average annual hours worked, employment rate, and output 2019-2020 vs Visegrad donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2010 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
average_annual_hours_worked
outcome
pwt:avhtier 3
level
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
hungary_overtime_law_2019
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2019-Q1 Act CXVI/2018 effective datetier 5
indicator
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level
capacity_utilisation_proxy
control
eurostat:bs_cscb_qtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_hungary_2019_overtime_law

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-0.07569, |gap|/pre_sd=1, p_perm=0.857 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Hungary's 2018 "slave law" overtime amendment (Act CXVI/2018: raising annual overtime cap from 250 to 400 hours, allowing 3-year reference periods) effective 2019-Q1 raised the Hungarian average annual hours worked by at least 1.5% relative to a synthetic control of Visegrad peers, but did not produce a measurable expansion in employment-rate or output growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Hungarian average annual hours worked > +1.5% by 2020 AND employment-rate gap is not significantly positive at p<0.10. REFUTED if hours gap < +0.5% OR employment-rate gap also rises significantly (joint expansion claim, undermining the steelman intensive- margin-only reading).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: HUN
  • event_year: 2018
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'POL': 0.6013, 'CZE': 0.269, 'ROU': 0.0669, 'SVK': 0.0628, 'SVN': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.08197552471712632
  • pre_period_sd: 0.07237968051014859
  • mean_post_gap: -0.07568517954438825
  • end_period_gap: -0.08040515590807118
  • post_period_years: [2018, 2021]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.8571428571428571
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2019-Q1. The "slave law" is unusual for raising labour intensity rather than headcount margin. The hypothesis lets a heterodox reader argue the reform was redistributive (transferring leisure to employer use) without productivity payoff.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.