IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020

India's 2019-2020 consolidation of 29 labour laws into 4 Codes (Wage Code 2019, Industrial Relations Code 2020, OSH Code 2020, Social Security Code 2020) — implementation pending in many states — raised India's manufacturing formal-employment share by at least 1 pp by 2024 in early- notifying states relative to late-notifying states, exploiting the staggered state-level rollout for identification.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether india state code notification is actually linked to better or worse manufacturing formal employment share from 2015 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • India state code notification
What we checked
  • Manufacturing formal employment share
  • Informal employment share
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020
1007550250201520202024IND
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_formal_employment_share across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T09:47:25Z

India's 2019-2020 consolidation of 29 labour laws into 4 Codes (Wage Code 2019, Industrial Relations Code 2020, OSH Code 2020, Social Security Code 2020) — implementation pending in many states — raised India's manufacturing formal-employment share by at least 1 pp by 2024 in early- notifying states relative to late-notifying states, exploiting the staggered state-level rollout for identification.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if early-notifying-state vs late-notifying-state DiD on manufacturing formal-employment share shows >+1.0 pp gap at p<0.10 by 2024, robust to a state political-control control. REFUTED if gap < +0.3 pp OR collapses with political-control adjustment. PARTIAL if gap is significant but small in magnitude.

formal test & threshold
test:      Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on Indian state panel of manufacturing formal-employment share, 2019-2024, with state and year FE plus state political-control covariate.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_formal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.IND.EMPL.ZStier 2
level
informal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
india_state_code_notification
treatment
constructed:state-year indicator for labour-Code rules pre-publication datetier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
state_political_control
control
constructed:state-year indicator for ruling party (BJP / INC / regional)tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_india_industrial_codes_2020

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's 2019-2020 consolidation of 29 labour laws into 4 Codes (Wage Code 2019, Industrial Relations Code 2020, OSH Code 2020, Social Security Code 2020) — implementation pending in many states — raised India's manufacturing formal-employment share by at least 1 pp by 2024 in early- notifying states relative to late-notifying states, exploiting the staggered state-level rollout for identification.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if early-notifying-state vs late-notifying-state DiD on manufacturing formal-employment share shows >+1.0 pp gap at p<0.10 by 2024, robust to a state political-control control. REFUTED if gap < +0.3 pp OR collapses with political-control adjustment. PARTIAL if gap is significant but small in magnitude.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded

Variables resolved

Missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.IND.EMPL.ZS (outcome)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS (outcome)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS (outcome)
  • constructed: state-year indicator for labour-Code rules pre-publication date (treatment)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (controls)
  • constructed: state-year indicator for ruling party (BJP / INC / regional) (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T09:47:25+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment timing varies by state because labour falls under Concurrent List requiring state-level rule notification. As of 2024 about 25 states had pre-published rules; full national implementation has not occurred. Identification uses early-vs-late state staggering.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.