IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect

Italy's 2014-2015 Jobs Act (Article 18 dismissal-cost reform, contratto a tutele crescenti, NASpI unemployment insurance rationalisation) raised the Italian employment rate by at least 0.8 pp by end-2018 relative to a synthetic control of southern-European peers, with the largest gains on permanent rather than fixed-term contracts.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.555, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether jobs act enactment is actually linked to better or worse employment to population ratio from 2008 to 2019.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2.555, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2008 to 2019, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Jobs act enactment
What we checked
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Permanent contract share
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect
1007550250200820142019ITAESPPRTGRCFRADEUAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_to_population_ratio across 7 sampled countries over 2008–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Italy's 2014-2015 Jobs Act (Article 18 dismissal-cost reform, contratto a tutele crescenti, NASpI unemployment insurance rationalisation) raised the Italian employment rate by at least 0.8 pp by end-2018 relative to a synthetic control of southern-European peers, with the largest gains on permanent rather than fixed-term contracts.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on employment rate > +0.8 pp at 2018 horizon AND permanent-contract-share-of-employment shows a statistically significant positive coefficient at p<0.10. REFUTED if employment gap is wrong-signed or insignificant, OR if the contract-composition shift is toward fixed-term rather than permanent contracts.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Italian employment rate 2015-2018 vs southern- European donor pool; placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2008 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
permanent_contract_share
outcome
eurostat:lfsa_etpgatier 1
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
jobs_act_enactment
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2015-Q1 Jobs Act decreto attuativotier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_italy_jobs_act_2014_employment_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2.555, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Italy's 2014-2015 Jobs Act (Article 18 dismissal-cost reform, contratto a tutele crescenti, NASpI unemployment insurance rationalisation) raised the Italian employment rate by at least 0.8 pp by end-2018 relative to a synthetic control of southern-European peers, with the largest gains on permanent rather than fixed-term contracts.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on employment rate > +0.8 pp at 2018 horizon AND permanent-contract-share-of-employment shows a statistically significant positive coefficient at p<0.10. REFUTED if employment gap is wrong-signed or insignificant, OR if the contract-composition shift is toward fixed-term rather than permanent contracts.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: ITA
  • event_year: 2014
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'AUT': 0.5715, 'GRC': 0.2173, 'DEU': 0.2112, 'ESP': 0.0, 'PRT': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 1.267998751496918
  • pre_period_sd: 2.0110497424645333
  • mean_post_gap: 2.55532613309764
  • end_period_gap: 2.9059633798314026
  • post_period_years: [2014, 2019]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5714285714285714
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2015-Q1 (decreto attuativo). The contract-type composition test is a deliberate steelman-led design: Italian critics argued the Jobs Act would shift labour into precarious contracts; the spec asks the data to adjudicate. Donor pool is the southern-European peer set whose 2014-2018 macro trajectories share Italy's banking-crisis legacy.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.