IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment

South Korea's 1998 IMF-program labour reforms (lifetime- employment relaxation, dispatch-worker law, layoff-rule liberalisation) restructured the Korean labour market: by 2003 non-regular-worker share rose by at least 8 pp relative to a synthetic control of East-Asian peers, and aggregate employment-rate recovered to pre-crisis level, but the regular-worker share fell durably.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.1306, |gap|/pre_sd=0.44, p_perm=0.833; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether korea 1998 labour reform is actually linked to better or worse employment to population ratio from 1990 to 2008.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+0.1306, |gap|/pre_sd=0.44, p_perm=0.833; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1990 to 2008, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Korea 1998 labour reform
What we checked
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Non regular worker share
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment
1007550250199019992008KORJPNTWNSGPMYSTHAHKG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_to_population_ratio across 7 sampled countries over 1990–2008.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

South Korea's 1998 IMF-program labour reforms (lifetime- employment relaxation, dispatch-worker law, layoff-rule liberalisation) restructured the Korean labour market: by 2003 non-regular-worker share rose by at least 8 pp relative to a synthetic control of East-Asian peers, and aggregate employment-rate recovered to pre-crisis level, but the regular-worker share fell durably.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Korean non-regular-worker share > +8 pp by 2003 AND aggregate employment-rate gap returns to within 1 pp of donor pool by 2002. REFUTED if duality channel is < +4 pp OR aggregate employment fails to recover to within 2 pp of donor pool by 2002.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Korean non-regular-worker share and employment rate 1998-2003 vs East-Asian donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1990 – 2008
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
non_regular_worker_share
outcome
oecd:DSD_LFStier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
korea_1998_labour_reform
treatment
constructed:indicator for 1998-Q1 LSA amendment + Tripartite Commission agreementtier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
bis:reer_broad_krwtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_korea_imf_1998_employment

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.1306, |gap|/pre_sd=0.44, p_perm=0.833; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: South Korea's 1998 IMF-program labour reforms (lifetime- employment relaxation, dispatch-worker law, layoff-rule liberalisation) restructured the Korean labour market: by 2003 non-regular-worker share rose by at least 8 pp relative to a synthetic control of East-Asian peers, and aggregate employment-rate recovered to pre-crisis level, but the regular-worker share fell durably.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Korean non-regular-worker share > +8 pp by 2003 AND aggregate employment-rate gap returns to within 1 pp of donor pool by 2002. REFUTED if duality channel is < +4 pp OR aggregate employment fails to recover to within 2 pp of donor pool by 2002.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: KOR
  • event_year: 1998
  • n_donors: 5
  • donor_weights (top): {'MYS': 0.6297, 'JPN': 0.3703, 'SGP': 0.0, 'THA': 0.0, 'HKG': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.747116283992798
  • pre_period_sd: 0.2950970784577267
  • mean_post_gap: 0.13055674344924012
  • end_period_gap: -0.6261434506703192
  • post_period_years: [1998, 2008]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.8333333333333334
  • n_placebos: 5
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 1998-Q1 (Tripartite Commission agreement and February 1998 amendment to Labour Standards Act enabling managerial dismissals). Korea is the canonical Asian-crisis flexibilisation case. Donor pool of East-Asian peers attempts to absorb the common Asian-crisis shock.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.