IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991

New Zealand's 1991 Employment Contracts Act (abolition of national awards, individual contracts default, voluntary unionism) lowered the New Zealand unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 1996 relative to a synthetic control of Anglo peer economies, with the largest gains in low-skill employment, but did not raise productivity growth above donor-pool baseline.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1985 to 2000, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Eca enactment 1991
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Labour productivity per hour
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991
1007550250198519932000NZLAUSGBRIRLUSACAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 6 sampled countries over 1985–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:31Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

New Zealand's 1991 Employment Contracts Act (abolition of national awards, individual contracts default, voluntary unionism) lowered the New Zealand unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 1996 relative to a synthetic control of Anglo peer economies, with the largest gains in low-skill employment, but did not raise productivity growth above donor-pool baseline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on NZ unemployment rate < -2.0 pp by 1996 AND productivity-growth gap is not statistically distinguishable from zero. REFUTED if unemployment gap is wrong-signed at p<0.10. PARTIAL if unemployment gap meets threshold and productivity gap is also significantly positive (productivity-bonus interpretation).

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on NZ unemployment rate 1991-1996 vs Anglo donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 1985 – 2000
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
labour_productivity_per_hour
outcome
pwt:rgdpotier 3
log
eca_enactment_1991
treatment
constructed:indicator for 1991-Q2 ECA enactmenttier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
terms_of_trade_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_nz_employment_contracts_act_1991

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: New Zealand's 1991 Employment Contracts Act (abolition of national awards, individual contracts default, voluntary unionism) lowered the New Zealand unemployment rate by at least 2 pp by 1996 relative to a synthetic control of Anglo peer economies, with the largest gains in low-skill employment, but did not raise productivity growth above donor-pool baseline.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on NZ unemployment rate < -2.0 pp by 1996 AND productivity-growth gap is not statistically distinguishable from zero. REFUTED if unemployment gap is wrong-signed at p<0.10. PARTIAL if unemployment gap meets threshold and productivity gap is also significantly positive (productivity-bonus interpretation).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=0, donors=0)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → employment_to_population_ratio (outcome, n=8071)
  • pwt:rgdpo → labour_productivity_per_hour (outcome, n=10399)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade_index (controls, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:31+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 1991-Q2 (ECA enactment). NZ is the canonical "deepest deregulation" case in the Anglo set and has been studied extensively. Donor pool is AUS, GBR, IRL, USA, CAN. The productivity-channel test is the steelman discipline: if NZ deregulation produced employment growth without productivity, the welfare verdict is mixed.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.