IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime

Peru's 2008 MYPE (micro/small-enterprise) special labour regime extension (Legislative Decree 1086: reduced labour obligations, simplified social-security access for small firms) raised the formal-employment share among MYPE workers by at least 4 pp by 2013 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, without producing a measurable wage decline at the median.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+14.3, |gap|/pre_sd=3.5, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether peru dl 1086 2008 is actually linked to better or worse formal employment share from 2000 to 2015.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+14.3, |gap|/pre_sd=3.5, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2000 to 2015, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Peru dl 1086 2008
What we checked
  • Formal employment share
  • Informal employment share
  • Median real wage index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime
1007550250200020082015PERCOLMEXBRACHLURYECU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show formal_employment_share across 7 sampled countries over 2000–2015.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:51:40Z

Peru's 2008 MYPE (micro/small-enterprise) special labour regime extension (Legislative Decree 1086: reduced labour obligations, simplified social-security access for small firms) raised the formal-employment share among MYPE workers by at least 4 pp by 2013 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, without producing a measurable wage decline at the median.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Peruvian MYPE formal- employment share > +4.0 pp by 2013 AND median real wage gap is not statistically more negative than -1.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if formal-employment gap < +1.0 pp OR median wage falls > -2.0 pp (wage-suppression channel dominant). PARTIAL otherwise.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Peruvian MYPE formal-employment share and median real wage 2008-2013 vs LATAM donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2000 – 2015
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
formal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
informal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
median_real_wage_index
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
log
peru_dl_1086_2008
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2008-Q3 DL 1086 MYPE-regime extensiontier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
terms_of_trade_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_peru_2008_msme_regime

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+14.3, |gap|/pre_sd=3.5, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Peru's 2008 MYPE (micro/small-enterprise) special labour regime extension (Legislative Decree 1086: reduced labour obligations, simplified social-security access for small firms) raised the formal-employment share among MYPE workers by at least 4 pp by 2013 relative to a synthetic control of Latin-American peers, without producing a measurable wage decline at the median.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Peruvian MYPE formal- employment share > +4.0 pp by 2013 AND median real wage gap is not statistically more negative than -1.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if formal-employment gap < +1.0 pp OR median wage falls > -2.0 pp (wage-suppression channel dominant). PARTIAL otherwise.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: PER
  • event_year: 2008
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'ECU': 0.6921, 'URY': 0.3079, 'COL': 0.0, 'MEX': 0.0, 'BRA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 9.074820132348268
  • pre_period_sd: 4.0330642174583415
  • mean_post_gap: 14.296932004801223
  • end_period_gap: 11.125026606286042
  • post_period_years: [2008, 2015]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.14285714285714285
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → formal_employment_share (outcome, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade_index (controls, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:51:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2008-Q3 (DL 1086 enactment). Peru is the canonical small-firm-formalisation case in Latin America. Country-level identification is weak because the MYPE regime is sector-conditional; the spec acknowledges this as a robustness concern.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.