IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment

Portugal's 2011-2014 troika-era labour reforms (Memorandum of Understanding measures: severance reduction, working-time flexibility, collective-bargaining suspension) lowered the Portuguese unemployment rate by at least 1.5 pp by 2017 relative to a synthetic control of euro-area peripheral peers, but did not durably raise the labour-share of national income.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+3.134, |gap|/pre_sd=2.4, p_perm=0.571; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+3.134, |gap|/pre_sd=2.4, p_perm=0.571; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2005 to 2018, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Troika mou implementation
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
  • Employment to population ratio
  • Labour share of income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment
1007550250200520122018PRTESPITAGRCIRLFRABEL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 7 sampled countries over 2005–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Portugal's 2011-2014 troika-era labour reforms (Memorandum of Understanding measures: severance reduction, working-time flexibility, collective-bargaining suspension) lowered the Portuguese unemployment rate by at least 1.5 pp by 2017 relative to a synthetic control of euro-area peripheral peers, but did not durably raise the labour-share of national income.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on unemployment rate < -1.5 pp by 2017 AND labour-share gap is not statistically more negative than -2.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if unemployment gap is insignificant OR labour-share gap < -2.0 pp (showing the reform's main effect was a permanent factor-share shift).

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Portuguese unemployment rate and labour share 2011-2017 vs peripheral donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2005 – 2018
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
employment_to_population_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
labour_share_of_gdp
outcome
pwt:labshtier 3
level
troika_mou_implementation
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2011-Q3 onwards MoU labour measurestier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_portugal_2011_troika_employment

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+3.134, |gap|/pre_sd=2.4, p_perm=0.571; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Portugal's 2011-2014 troika-era labour reforms (Memorandum of Understanding measures: severance reduction, working-time flexibility, collective-bargaining suspension) lowered the Portuguese unemployment rate by at least 1.5 pp by 2017 relative to a synthetic control of euro-area peripheral peers, but did not durably raise the labour-share of national income.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on unemployment rate < -1.5 pp by 2017 AND labour-share gap is not statistically more negative than -2.0 pp at p<0.10. REFUTED if unemployment gap is insignificant OR labour-share gap < -2.0 pp (showing the reform's main effect was a permanent factor-share shift).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: PRT
  • event_year: 2011
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'BEL': 0.7139, 'IRL': 0.2445, 'GRC': 0.0416, 'ESP': 0.0, 'ITA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.6210219717473622
  • pre_period_sd: 1.3248124395551246
  • mean_post_gap: 3.134037254658442
  • end_period_gap: 0.523597268112054
  • post_period_years: [2011, 2018]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5714285714285714
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8106)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10779)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2011-Q3 (start of MoU implementation). Portugal is a clean case because the reforms were imposed conditionally by the troika — a quasi-exogenous timing relative to domestic political-economic dynamics.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.