IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality

Germany's Schröder Agenda 2010 reforms (2003-2005, complementary to Hartz IV) durably widened the German bottom-quintile-to- median wage ratio: by 2015 the ratio gap relative to a synthetic control of euro-area peers was at least -3 pp below the donor pool, with the gap not reverting after partial 2015 minimum-wage introduction.

REFUTEDengine/runs/labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality

REFUTED - 2015 bottom-to-median gap is +1.06pp, not the registered <= -3pp widening

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. 2015 bottom-to-median gap is +1.06pp, not the registered <= -3pp widening

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1995 to 2018, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Agenda 2010 enactment
  • German minimum wage 2015
What we checked
  • P10 p50 wage ratio
  • Low pay incidence
  • Inequality gross earnings
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality
1007550250199520072018DEUFRANLDBELAUTITAFIN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show p10_p50_wage_ratio across 8 sampled countries over 1995–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Germany's Schröder Agenda 2010 reforms (2003-2005, complementary to Hartz IV) durably widened the German bottom-quintile-to- median wage ratio: by 2015 the ratio gap relative to a synthetic control of euro-area peers was at least -3 pp below the donor pool, with the gap not reverting after partial 2015 minimum-wage introduction.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on German bottom-quintile-to- median wage ratio < -3.0 pp by 2015 AND the gap does not statistically narrow after 2015-Q1 minimum-wage introduction. REFUTED if gap is shallower than -1.0 pp OR if the gap closes substantially post-2015 (showing the effect was a flow not a stock).

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on German P10/P50 wage ratio 2003-2018 vs euro-area donor pool, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1995 – 2018
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
p10_p50_wage_ratio
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
level
low_pay_incidence
outcome
oecd:DSD_EARNtier 2
level
gini_gross_earnings
outcome
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
level
agenda_2010_enactment
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2003-Q1 Hartz I onwardstier 5
indicator
german_minimum_wage_2015
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2015-Q1 minimum-wage introductiontier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality

Verdict: REFUTED - 2015 bottom-to-median gap is +1.06pp, not the registered <= -3pp widening

Sparse OECD IDD Benchmark

  • Donor weights: NLD=0.420, ITA=0.380, FIN=0.199.
  • 2015 bottom-to-median disposable-income gap: 1.06 pp.
  • Mean 2015-2018 gap: 0.27 pp.
  • Placebo p-value: 1.000.

This is a disposable-income lower-tail proxy. The registered wage P10/P50 source is still not locally wired.

Generated by engine/runs/labour_reform_schroeder_agenda_2010_long_run_inequality/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Companion to labour_reform_hartz_iv_germany_2003_employment_effect. This spec tests the long-run distributional cost of the reforms specifically, with a 2015 horizon to capture whether the German national minimum-wage introduction reversed the wage-floor compression.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.