IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019

Vietnam's 2019 Labour Code revision (Law 45/2019/QH14: retirement-age increase, multiple-trade-union recognition, working-time provisions, dispute-resolution reform) effective 2021-Q1 raised the Vietnamese formal-employment share by at least 1.5 pp by 2024 relative to a synthetic control of ASEAN peers, with the largest gains in foreign- invested manufacturing.

PARTIALengine/runs/labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+6.945, |gap|/pre_sd=17, p_perm=0.5 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether vietnam labour code 2019 is actually linked to better or worse formal employment share from 2010 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+6.945, |gap|/pre_sd=17, p_perm=0.5 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a synth did design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Vietnam labour code 2019
What we checked
  • Formal employment share
  • Informal employment share
  • Manufacturing employment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019
1007550250201020172024VNMIDNTHAMYSPHLKHM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show formal_employment_share across 6 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:51:40Z

Vietnam's 2019 Labour Code revision (Law 45/2019/QH14: retirement-age increase, multiple-trade-union recognition, working-time provisions, dispute-resolution reform) effective 2021-Q1 raised the Vietnamese formal-employment share by at least 1.5 pp by 2024 relative to a synthetic control of ASEAN peers, with the largest gains in foreign- invested manufacturing.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Vietnamese formal-employment share > +1.5 pp by 2024 AND the gain is concentrated in foreign-invested manufacturing sectors. REFUTED if formal- employment gap < +0.5 pp OR uniformly distributed across sectors (no FDI-channel concentration).

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DiD on Vietnamese formal-employment share 2021-2024 vs ASEAN donor pool with FDI-share control, placebo permutation at p<0.10.

Method

Template
synth_did
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
formal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
informal_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
manufacturing_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.IND.EMPL.ZStier 2
level
vietnam_labour_code_2019
treatment
constructed:indicator for 2021-Q1 Law 45/2019 effective datetier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflow_share
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — labour_reform_vietnam_labour_code_2019

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+6.945, |gap|/pre_sd=17, p_perm=0.5 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Vietnam's 2019 Labour Code revision (Law 45/2019/QH14: retirement-age increase, multiple-trade-union recognition, working-time provisions, dispute-resolution reform) effective 2021-Q1 raised the Vietnamese formal-employment share by at least 1.5 pp by 2024 relative to a synthetic control of ASEAN peers, with the largest gains in foreign- invested manufacturing.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if synth-DiD gap on Vietnamese formal-employment share > +1.5 pp by 2024 AND the gain is concentrated in foreign-invested manufacturing sectors. REFUTED if formal- employment gap < +0.5 pp OR uniformly distributed across sectors (no FDI-channel concentration).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: VNM
  • event_year: 2019
  • n_donors: 5
  • donor_weights (top): {'MYS': 0.461, 'IDN': 0.2335, 'THA': 0.1478, 'KHM': 0.1145, 'PHL': 0.0432}
  • pre_rmse: 10.211629660638966
  • pre_period_sd: 0.4123847650489065
  • mean_post_gap: 6.944602774645617
  • end_period_gap: 5.476284790745467
  • post_period_years: [2019, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5
  • n_placebos: 5
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → formal_employment_share (outcome, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflow_share (controls, n=11580)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:51:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Treatment dated 2021-Q1 (effective date). Vietnam's 2019 Labour Code is unusual because it includes ILO-conformity changes (multiple-union recognition) alongside flexibilisation components. COVID overlap is a concern.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.