IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation

Land-value or split-rate property taxation predicts lower vacancy and faster redevelopment than pure improvement taxation.

REFUTEDengine/runs/land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation

REFUTED — coef=+6017 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0312

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+6017 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0312

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1970 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation
1007550250197019972023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1970–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:14Z

Land-value or split-rate property taxation predicts lower vacancy and faster redevelopment than pure improvement taxation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1970 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for EST from 1993 onward; AUS from 1980 onward; USA from 1979 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+6017 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0312

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Land-value or split-rate property taxation predicts lower vacancy and faster redevelopment than pure improvement taxation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_land_value_tax_vacant_lot_utilisation

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +6017
  • Std error: 2790
  • p-value: 0.0312
  • Observations: 1202, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.078
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • constructed: 1 for EST from 1993 onward; AUS from 1980 onward; USA from 1979 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1620)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:14+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.