IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024

Countries with higher sustained market-institution scores from 1970 to 2024 experienced stronger convergence in real household consumption per capita toward the US frontier than countries with weaker market scores.

PARTIALengine/runs/long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024

PARTIAL — coef=-1611, p=0.0784 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-1611, p=0.0784 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1970 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Sustained market score
What we checked
  • Real consumption pc convergence
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024
1007550250197019972024USAGBRDEUFRAJPNCANAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_consumption_pc_convergence across 35 sampled countries over 1970–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:54Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries with higher sustained market-institution scores from 1970 to 2024 experienced stronger convergence in real household consumption per capita toward the US frontier than countries with weaker market scores.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if sustained_market_score positively predicts consumption convergence with p<=0.05 and at least a 2 percentage point ten-year convergence effect per standard deviation. REFUTED if the effect is negative with p<=0.05 and comparable magnitude. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      consumption_frontier_market_score_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1970 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Consumption frontier convergence test using ten-year windows to reduce business-cycle noise.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_consumption_pc_convergence
outcome
pwt:ccontier 3
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
ratio to US real consumption per capita and ten-year growth
sustained_market_score
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
rolling ten-year average
initial_consumption_pc
control
pwt:ccon_poptier 3
log baseline level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
annual change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — long_run_consumption_frontier_market_score_1970_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-1611, p=0.0784 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries with higher sustained market-institution scores from 1970 to 2024 experienced stronger convergence in real household consumption per capita toward the US frontier than countries with weaker market scores.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if sustained_market_score positively predicts consumption convergence with p<=0.05 and at least a 2 percentage point ten-year convergence effect per standard deviation. REFUTED if the effect is negative with p<=0.05 and comparable magnitude. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: consumption_frontier_market_score_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1611
  • Std error: 914.2
  • p-value: 0.0784
  • Observations: 744, countries: 35
  • Within R²: 0.572
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:ccon; world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → real_consumption_pc_convergence (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → sustained_market_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • pwt:ccon_pop → initial_consumption_pc (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:54+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.