IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution

Macron 2017-2019 labour-tax reforms produced measurable employment gains but had distributional costs; welfare-state-adjustment outcome is mixed and depends on transfer-side offsets.

PARTIALengine/runs/macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution

PARTIAL - employment leg clears but disposable-income Gini does not rise by 0.005

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether macron ordonnances event is actually linked to better or worse unemployment rate from 2014 to 2022.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. employment leg clears but disposable-income Gini does not rise by 0.005

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2014 to 2022, using a event study design, with fixed effects for region and quarter.

what was measured
What changed
  • Macron ordonnances event
  • French corporate tax rate
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
  • Employment rate
  • Inequality disposable income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution
1007550250201420182022FRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 1 sampled countries over 2014–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Empirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T18:10:12Z

Macron 2017-2019 labour-tax reforms produced measurable employment gains but had distributional costs; welfare-state-adjustment outcome is mixed and depends on transfer-side offsets.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if France's 2017-2019 unemployment rate is at least 0.5pp below a 2010-2016 pre-trend by 2019 and disposable-income Gini rises by at least 0.005 from 2016 to 2019, matching the "employment gains with distributional costs" claim. REFUTED if unemployment is not below trend by at least 0.5pp by 2019. PARTIAL if the employment leg clears but the distributional-cost leg does not.

formal test & threshold
test:      Event study around 2017 ordonnances and 2018 tax reforms on French regional employment and Gini; supported if employment IRF is positive >+0.5pp and Gini IRF is positive >+0.5pp at p<0.10 each.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
region, quarter
Clustering
region
Sample
1 countries · 2014 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

Exact local-data wrapper uses national WDI unemployment and OECD IDD disposable-income Gini because the registered regional/sectoral panels are not local. Pre-trend window is 2010-2016; post window is 2017-2019. This is a benchmark national event-study artifact, not the final regional design.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
employment_rate
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.EMPtier 2
level
gini_disposable_income
outcome
oecd:OECD.WISE.INEtier 2
level
top_1_share
outcome
wid:wid_alltier 3
level
poverty_rate_at_60_median
outcome
eurostat:ILCtier 1
level
macron_ordonnances_event
treatment
derived:macron_reform_datestier 4
indicator
french_corporate_tax_rate
treatment
oecd:OECD.CTP.TPStier 2
level
euro_area_unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FM.M.U2.EUR.4F.KR.MRR_FR.LEVtier 1
level
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution

Verdict: PARTIAL - employment leg clears but disposable-income Gini does not rise by 0.005

National Event Benchmark

  • 2019 unemployment gap vs 2010-2016 pre-trend: -2.51 pp.
  • Mean 2017-2019 unemployment gap: -1.80 pp.
  • Disposable-income Gini change, 2016-2019: 0.001.

This benchmark validates the employment-improvement leg but not the registered distributional-cost leg.

Generated by engine/runs/macron_labour_tax_employment_distribution/replication.py at 2026-05-17T18:10:12+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from social-democratic, empirical-pragmatist, and New-Keynesian school predictions about Macron 2017-2019 reforms. Window is short and pre-COVID; needs human review of yellow-vest distributional channel.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.