IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget

Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron 1980-2020 disclosed knowledge of climate impacts while investing in reserves whose combustion would exceed the remaining 1.5C carbon budget, consistent with accumulation-ecological-limit contradiction.

PARTIALengine/runs/major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether firm reserve expansion year is actually linked to better or worse cumulative reserve combustion co2 gt from 1980 to 2020.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 3 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Firm reserve expansion year
What we checked
  • Cumulative reserve combustion co2 gt
  • Ipcc remaining carbon budget 1p5c gt
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget
1007550250198020002020USAGBRNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cumulative_reserve_combustion_co2_gt across 3 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:05:29Z

Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron 1980-2020 disclosed knowledge of climate impacts while investing in reserves whose combustion would exceed the remaining 1.5C carbon budget, consistent with accumulation-ecological-limit contradiction.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Descriptive comparison of Exxon/Shell/BP/Chevron 1980-2020 reported reserves (10-K filings) converted to combustion-CO2 vs IPCC AR6 1.5C remaining carbon budget; firm+year-level. Refute if combined firm reserves' combustion-CO2 not >2x the global 1.5C budget at any 5-year window OR if internal climate-knowledge documents pre-1990 are not contemporaneous with reserve expansion.

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
3 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Descriptive arithmetic comparison: sum 1980-2020 disclosed reserves of Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron converted to combustion-CO2; benchmark against IPCC 1.5C remaining carbon budget at 5-year intervals. Pair with timeline of internal climate-knowledge documents (Exxon-Mobil internal memos 1977 onwards) to establish contemporaneity of disclosed knowledge and reserve expansion. Not causal — descriptive arithmetic plus event timeline.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cumulative_reserve_combustion_co2_gt
outcome
constructed:firm-level 10-K reported proved reserves (Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron) converted to combustion-CO2 via IPCC AR6 emission ftier 5
level
ipcc_remaining_carbon_budget_1p5c_gt
outcome
constructed:IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM remaining 1.5C carbon budget (50% probability), updated annually.tier 5
level
firm_reserve_expansion_year
treatment
constructed:firm-year indicator = 1 if reserves grew >5% YoY (10-K disclosed). Tracks contemporaneity with internal climate-knowledgtier 5
indicator
brent_oil_usd
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — major_fossil_firm_reserve_vs_carbon_budget

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron 1980-2020 disclosed knowledge of climate impacts while investing in reserves whose combustion would exceed the remaining 1.5C carbon budget, consistent with accumulation-ecological-limit contradiction.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Descriptive comparison of Exxon/Shell/BP/Chevron 1980-2020 reported reserves (10-K filings) converted to combustion-CO2 vs IPCC AR6 1.5C remaining carbon budget; firm+year-level. Refute if combined firm reserves' combustion-CO2 not >2x the global 1.5C budget at any 5-year window OR if internal climate-knowledge documents pre-1990 are not contemporaneous with reserve expansion.

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: USA
  • treatment_value: 0.0
  • donor_pool_median: 0.5
  • ratio: 0.0
  • log_diff: None
  • n_donor_countries: 2
  • end_year_window: [2015, 2020]

Extracted threshold: {'fold': 2.0}

Variables resolved

  • constructed: firm-level 10-K reported proved reserves (Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron) converted to combustion-CO2 via IPCC AR6 emission factors. Hand-coded from SEC 10-K + UK Annual Reports + cross-referenced with Carbon Tracker (2011 Unburnable Carbon). → cumulative_reserve_combustion_co2_gt (outcome, publisher=constructed, n=123)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → brent_oil_usd (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=111)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM remaining 1.5C carbon budget (50% probability), updated annually. (outcome, name=ipcc_remaining_carbon_budget_1p5c_gt)
  • constructed: firm-year indicator = 1 if reserves grew >5% YoY (10-K disclosed). Tracks contemporaneity with internal climate-knowledge documents (1980s onwards). (treatment, name=firm_reserve_expansion_year)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T15:05:29+00:00

Notes

Maps the eco-socialist school's fossil-major-reserves-exceed-carbon-budget claim to a descriptive comparison of disclosed reserve combustion potential vs IPCC 1.5C remaining carbon budget. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.