IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024

Malaysia's post-1990 growth plateau is associated with protected national-champion industrial policy (Proton, GLC preference, sectoral reservation) and ethnic-allocation constraints (Bumiputera equity requirements, preferential procurement) that reduced product-market competition and resource allocation efficiency after successful early catch-up (1970-1990).

Total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed relative to comparator economies that liberalised more aggressively after reaching middle-income status, after controlling for commodity price cycles, human capital, and trade openness.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_index', 'constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxy']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_index', 'constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxy']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1970 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • National champion protection index
  • Ethnic allocation constraint index
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024
1007550250197019972024MYSKORTWNTHAIDNCHLTUR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 8 sampled countries over 1970–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:54Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Malaysia's post-1990 growth plateau is associated with protected national-champion industrial policy (Proton, GLC preference, sectoral reservation) and ethnic-allocation constraints (Bumiputera equity requirements, preferential procurement) that reduced product-market competition and resource allocation efficiency after successful early catch-up (1970-1990). Total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed relative to comparator economies that liberalised more aggressively after reaching middle-income status, after controlling for commodity price cycles, human capital, and trade openness.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if Malaysia's post-1990 TFP growth is statistically indistinguishable from or higher than South Korea's or Taiwan's post-1990 performance after controlling for initial income and commodity dependence, or if the national-champion protection index does not carry a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on TFP growth in the panel.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_malaysia_plateau_1970_2024
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1970 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Panel fixed-effects with structural break for Malaysia post-1990.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
national_champion_protection_index
treatment
constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_indextier 5
level
ethnic_allocation_constraint_index
treatment
constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxytier 5
level
product_market_competition
treatment
oecd_pmr:pmrtier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
commodity_export_share
control
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.WTtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — malaysia_developmentalist_plateau_1990_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_index', 'constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxy']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Malaysia's post-1990 growth plateau is associated with protected national-champion industrial policy (Proton, GLC preference, sectoral reservation) and ethnic-allocation constraints (Bumiputera equity requirements, preferential procurement) that reduced product-market competition and resource allocation efficiency after successful early catch-up (1970-1990). Total factor productivity growth and GDP per capita convergence slowed relative to comparator economies that liberalised more aggressively after reaching middle-income status, after controlling for commodity price cycles, human capital, and trade openness.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if Malaysia's post-1990 TFP growth is statistically indistinguishable from or higher than South Korea's or Taiwan's post-1990 performance after controlling for initial income and commodity dependence, or if the national-champion protection index does not carry a negative and significant (p < 0.10) coefficient on TFP growth in the panel.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_malaysia_plateau_1970_2024

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_index', 'constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxy']

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • oecd_pmr:pmr → product_market_competition (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=14)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:glc_share_plus_sectoral_reservation_index (treatment, name=national_champion_protection_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:bumiputera_equity_procurement_proxy (treatment, name=ethnic_allocation_constraint_index) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.WT (controls, name=commodity_export_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:54+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Malaysia's plateau is partly attributable to the middle-income trap common to resource-rich economies. The inclusion of Chile and Turkey helps separate resource-dependence from policy-specific effects.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.