IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth

Higher formal new-business entry density predicts faster subsequent real income growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth

PARTIAL — coef=-2.871e-18, p=0.479; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-2.871e-18, p=0.479; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 2006 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • New business density
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth 3yr forward
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth
1007550250200620132020USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth_3yr_forward across 40 sampled countries over 2006–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit e29141a · 2026-05-22T17:36:53Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:54Z

Higher formal new-business entry density predicts faster subsequent real income growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if lagged new-business density is positive at p<0.10 for forward income growth. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 2006 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Formal registrations miss informal entrepreneurship, so the treatment is a conservative proxy for market entry.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth_3yr_forward
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
cumulative_log_growth_3yr_forward
new_business_density
treatment
world_bank_wdi:IC.BUS.NDNS.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-2.871e-18, p=0.479; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher formal new-business entry density predicts faster subsequent real income growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if lagged new-business density is positive at p<0.10 for forward income growth. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_entrepreneurial_entry_income_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -2.871e-18
  • Std error: 4.051e-18
  • p-value: 0.479
  • Observations: 394, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc_growth_3yr_forward (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS → new_business_density (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2451)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:54+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.