IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth

Lower export-product concentration predicts faster subsequent real GDP per-capita growth and stronger high-technology export performance.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth

PARTIAL — coef=-3.163e-17, p=0.818; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-3.163e-17, p=0.818; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1988 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Export product concentration
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth 5yr forward
  • High tech exports share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth
1007550250198820062023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward across 40 sampled countries over 1988–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:54Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Lower export-product concentration predicts faster subsequent real GDP per-capita growth and stronger high-technology export performance.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if export concentration is negative at p<0.10 for forward income growth and negative or null for high-tech exports. REFUTED if it is positive at p<0.10 for forward growth. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1988 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Export diversification is treated as a revealed market-discovery outcome, not as proof that laissez-faire caused diversification.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
cumulative_log_growth_5yr_forward
high_tech_exports_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
export_product_concentration
treatment
wits:product_concentrationtier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
private_credit_depth
control
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-3.163e-17, p=0.818; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Lower export-product concentration predicts faster subsequent real GDP per-capita growth and stronger high-technology export performance.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if export concentration is negative at p<0.10 for forward income growth and negative or null for high-tech exports. REFUTED if it is positive at p<0.10 for forward growth. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_export_diversification_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -3.163e-17
  • Std error: 1.376e-16
  • p-value: 0.818
  • Observations: 831, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 1
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • wits:product_concentration → export_product_concentration (treatment, publisher=wits, n=5129)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:54+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.