IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag

Higher government-consumption shares predict lower investment shares and slower subsequent real GDP per-capita growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag

PARTIAL — coef=-0.2648, p=0.146 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.2648, p=0.146 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Government consumption share
What we checked
  • Gross capital formation share
  • Real income pc growth 5yr forward
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gross_capital_formation_share across 40 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit e29141a · 2026-05-22T17:36:53Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:55Z

Higher government-consumption shares predict lower investment shares and slower subsequent real GDP per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if lagged government-consumption share is negative at p<0.10 for both investment share and forward growth. REFUTED if both primary coefficients are positive and at least one is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

The treatment is a broad state-allocation proxy; it does not distinguish public goods from transfers, defense, or emergency stabilization.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gross_capital_formation_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
cumulative_log_growth_5yr_forward
government_consumption_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
private_credit_depth
control
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.2648, p=0.146 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher government-consumption shares predict lower investment shares and slower subsequent real GDP per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if lagged government-consumption share is negative at p<0.10 for both investment share and forward growth. REFUTED if both primary coefficients are positive and at least one is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_government_consumption_investment_drag

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.2648
  • Std error: 0.1821
  • p-value: 0.146
  • Observations: 869, countries: 31
  • Within R²: -0.0215
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.