IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion

Higher investment freedom and private-credit depth predict faster renewable-electricity capacity diffusion.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0002684, p=0.845 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.0002684, p=0.845 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Investment freedom
  • Private credit depth
What we checked
  • Renewable capacity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion
1007550250200020122023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show renewable_capacity_growth across 40 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher investment freedom and private-credit depth predict faster renewable-electricity capacity diffusion.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if both investment freedom and private-credit depth are positive and at least one is significant at p<0.10 for renewable capacity growth. REFUTED if both coefficients are negative and at least one is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

This tests whether private-capital openness is compatible with green diffusion; it does not deny that mandates or subsidies may matter.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
renewable_capacity_growth
outcome
irena:installed_capacity_renewabletier 2
annual_log_growth_or_first_difference_when_zero
investment_freedom
treatment
heritage_ief:ief_paneltier 4
component_score_investment_freedom_lagged_one_year
private_credit_depth
treatment
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
electricity_access
control
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.0002684, p=0.845 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher investment freedom and private-credit depth predict faster renewable-electricity capacity diffusion.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if both investment freedom and private-credit depth are positive and at least one is significant at p<0.10 for renewable capacity growth. REFUTED if both coefficients are negative and at least one is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_investment_freedom_renewables_diffusion

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.0002684
  • Std error: 0.001374
  • p-value: 0.845
  • Observations: 684, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.663
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • irena:installed_capacity_renewable → renewable_capacity_growth (outcome, publisher=irena, n=5848)
  • heritage_ief:ief_panel → investment_freedom (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=525)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS → electricity_access (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7746)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.