IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth

Deeper private credit markets predict faster subsequent total-factor-productivity and real GDP per-capita growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001764, p=0.592 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.0001764, p=0.592 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1990 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Private credit depth
What we checked
  • Productivity growth 5yr forward
  • Real income pc growth 5yr forward
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth
1007550250199020052019USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth_5yr_forward across 40 sampled countries over 1990–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Deeper private credit markets predict faster subsequent total-factor-productivity and real GDP per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if private-credit depth is positive at p<0.10 for forward TFP growth and has the same sign for forward GDP-per-capita growth. REFUTED if the TFP coefficient is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1990 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Private-credit depth is a proxy for decentralized capital allocation; the design does not separate healthy intermediation from credit booms.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth_5yr_forward
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
cumulative_log_growth_5yr_forward
real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
cumulative_log_growth_5yr_forward
private_credit_depth
treatment
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
government_consumption_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001764, p=0.592 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Deeper private credit markets predict faster subsequent total-factor-productivity and real GDP per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if private-credit depth is positive at p<0.10 for forward TFP growth and has the same sign for forward GDP-per-capita growth. REFUTED if the TFP coefficient is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_private_credit_productivity_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0001764
  • Std error: 0.000329
  • p-value: 0.592
  • Observations: 691, countries: 29
  • Within R²: 0.00225
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth_5yr_forward (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc_growth_5yr_forward (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.