IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports

Higher market-oriented regulatory freedom predicts stronger high-technology export performance.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports

SUPPORTED — coef=+1.96 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00741

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+1.96 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00741

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1990 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Regulatory freedom
What we checked
  • High tech exports share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports
1007550250199020062022USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports_share across 40 sampled countries over 1990–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher market-oriented regulatory freedom predicts stronger high-technology export performance.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if regulatory freedom is positive at p<0.10 for high-tech export share. REFUTED if it is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1990 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

High-tech exports are a narrow innovation-output proxy; service innovation and domestic diffusion are not captured.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
regulatory_freedom
treatment
fraser_efw:regulationtier 4
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+1.96 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00741

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher market-oriented regulatory freedom predicts stronger high-technology export performance.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if regulatory freedom is positive at p<0.10 for high-tech export share. REFUTED if it is negative at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_regulatory_freedom_hightech_exports

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.96
  • Std error: 0.7271
  • p-value: 0.00741
  • Observations: 367, countries: 31
  • Within R²: -0.15
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • fraser_efw:regulation → regulatory_freedom (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4718)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.