IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc

Lower applied tariff rates predict faster real private-consumption-per-capita growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc

REFUTED — coef=+0.002457 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0174

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.002457 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0174

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1988 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Weighted mean applied tariff
What we checked
  • Real private consumption pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc
1007550250198820062023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_private_consumption_pc_growth across 40 sampled countries over 1988–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Lower applied tariff rates predict faster real private-consumption-per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the tariff coefficient is negative at p<0.10 for real private-consumption-per-capita growth. REFUTED if it is positive at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1988 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

This is a consumer-welfare screen for openness; it does not isolate tariff reforms from broader stabilization or exchange-rate changes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_private_consumption_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
annual_log_growth
weighted_mean_applied_tariff
treatment
wits:weighted_mean_applied_tarifftier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
real_gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
government_consumption_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.002457 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0174

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Lower applied tariff rates predict faster real private-consumption-per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the tariff coefficient is negative at p<0.10 for real private-consumption-per-capita growth. REFUTED if it is positive at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_dynamism_tariff_reduction_consumption_pc

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.002457
  • Std error: 0.001031
  • p-value: 0.0174
  • Observations: 841, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.938
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → real_private_consumption_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8501)
  • wits:weighted_mean_applied_tariff → weighted_mean_applied_tariff (treatment, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.