IESET.
Hypotheses·healthcare·market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel

Countries with more market-responsive hospital and physician supply show larger declines in amenable mortality over 20-year panels.

REFUTEDengine/runs/market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel

REFUTED — coef=+3.492 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0482

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the healthcare rule being tested improve access, cost, or outcomes for patients, or does it mainly shift pressure around the system?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+3.492 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0482

why it matters

This matters because healthcare claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel
1007550250199620102023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries with more market-responsive hospital and physician supply show larger declines in amenable mortality over 20-year panels.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for CHE from 1996 onward; NLD from 2006 onward; DEU from 1996 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+3.492 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0482

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries with more market-responsive hospital and physician supply show larger declines in amenable mortality over 20-year panels.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_healthcare_supply_mortality_amenable_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +3.492
  • Std error: 1.763
  • p-value: 0.0482
  • Observations: 575, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.453
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11166)
  • constructed: 1 for CHE from 1996 onward; NLD from 2006 onward; DEU from 1996 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=840)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.