IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk

Market openness (trade and capital-account liberalisation) without complementary adjustment institutions (active labour-market policy, regional transfers, wage insurance, retraining) raises inequality or regional divergence enough to trigger policy reversal (tariff increases, capital controls, populist economic platforms) within 10-15 years.

The claim applies to middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020 and challenges the assumption that openness is self-sustaining regardless of distributional consequences.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_dates', 'constructed:wid_world_top_1_percent', 'constructed:oecd_regional_wage_data']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_dates', 'constructed:wid_world_top_1_percent', 'constructed:oecd_regional_wage_data']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 34 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade openness
  • Capital account openness
What we checked
  • Policy reversal indicator
  • Top 1 income share
  • Regional wage divergence
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 6 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk
1007550250198020002020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show policy_reversal_indicator across 34 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:56Z

Market openness (trade and capital-account liberalisation) without complementary adjustment institutions (active labour-market policy, regional transfers, wage insurance, retraining) raises inequality or regional divergence enough to trigger policy reversal (tariff increases, capital controls, populist economic platforms) within 10-15 years. The claim applies to middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020 and challenges the assumption that openness is self-sustaining regardless of distributional consequences.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if trade openness is positively and significantly associated with policy stability (no reversal) even without adjustment institutions, or if the interaction between openness and adjustment institutions is not significant for preventing reversal.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_openness_inequality_reversal_1980_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
34 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
policy_reversal_indicator
outcome
constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_datestier 5
indicator
top_1_income_share
outcome
constructed:wid_world_top_1_percenttier 5
level
regional_wage_divergence
outcome
constructed:oecd_regional_wage_datatier 5
coefficient_of_variation
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
capital_account_openness
treatment
chinn_ito_kaopen; constructedlevel
adjustment_institutions_index
treatment
constructed:oecd_almp_spending_plus_unemployment_insurance_coveragetier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
manufacturing_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
union_density
control
ilostat:union_density_ratetier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_openness_inequality_backlash_risk

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_dates', 'constructed:wid_world_top_1_percent', 'constructed:oecd_regional_wage_data']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Market openness (trade and capital-account liberalisation) without complementary adjustment institutions (active labour-market policy, regional transfers, wage insurance, retraining) raises inequality or regional divergence enough to trigger policy reversal (tariff increases, capital controls, populist economic platforms) within 10-15 years. The claim applies to middle- and high-income countries 1980-2020 and challenges the assumption that openness is self-sustaining regardless of distributional consequences.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if trade openness is positively and significantly associated with policy stability (no reversal) even without adjustment institutions, or if the interaction between openness and adjustment institutions is not significant for preventing reversal.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_openness_inequality_reversal_1980_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_dates', 'constructed:wid_world_top_1_percent', 'constructed:oecd_regional_wage_data']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:fraser_efw_trade_decline; wacziarg_welch_reversal_dates (outcome, name=policy_reversal_indicator) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:wid_world_top_1_percent (outcome, name=top_1_income_share) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:oecd_regional_wage_data (outcome, name=regional_wage_divergence) — vintage not on disk
  • chinn_ito_kaopen; constructed (treatment, name=capital_account_openness) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:oecd_almp_spending_plus_unemployment_insurance_coverage (treatment, name=adjustment_institutions_index) — vintage not on disk
  • ilostat:union_density_rate (controls, name=union_density) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:56+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.