IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024

Higher trade and investment openness predicts stronger long-run prosperity gains.

REFUTEDengine/runs/market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024

REFUTED — coef=+28.5 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0903

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+28.5 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0903

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024
1007550250199520092023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:56Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher trade and investment openness predicts stronger long-run prosperity gains.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact outcome/treatment datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+28.5 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0903

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher trade and investment openness predicts stronger long-run prosperity gains.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_openness_multidimensional_prosperity_1995_2024

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +28.5
  • Std error: 16.81
  • p-value: 0.0903
  • Observations: 775, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.195
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:56+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.