IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_reform_duration_growth_persistence

Market-oriented reform episodes that persist for at least twenty years produce more durable GDP-per-capita and productivity gains than short reform bursts or state-led industrial-policy episodes without sustained market competition.

PARTIALengine/runs/market_reform_duration_growth_persistence

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+0.3555, p=0.172 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=+0.3555, p=0.172 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 24 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market reform duration
  • State industrial policy episode
What we checked
  • Durable growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_reform_duration_growth_persistence
1007550250198020022024ESTPOLCZESVKSVNIRLCHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show durable_growth across 24 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_reform_duration_growth_persistence. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_reform_duration_growth_persistence/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T08:44:16Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Market-oriented reform episodes that persist for at least twenty years produce more durable GDP-per-capita and productivity gains than short reform bursts or state-led industrial-policy episodes without sustained market competition.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if sustained market_reform_duration predicts stronger 20-year GDP-per-capita or TFP gains than short reforms or state-led episodes with p<=0.05. REFUTED if state-led episodes outperform sustained market reform over the 20-year horizon. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      market_reform_duration_long_window_event_study
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
country
Sample
24 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Matched long-window event study comparing sustained market reform, short reform bursts, and developmentalist episodes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
durable_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
ten-year and twenty-year post-reform growth
market_reform_duration
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
movements:market_liberal_alignmenttier 5
years with sustained high or improving market score after reform
state_industrial_policy_episode
treatment
movements:developmentalism_alignmenttier 5
policy_axes:industrial_policytier 5
episode indicator and duration

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_reform_duration_growth_persistence

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+0.3555, p=0.172 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Market-oriented reform episodes that persist for at least twenty years produce more durable GDP-per-capita and productivity gains than short reform bursts or state-led industrial-policy episodes without sustained market competition.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if sustained market_reform_duration predicts stronger 20-year GDP-per-capita or TFP gains than short reforms or state-led episodes with p<=0.05. REFUTED if state-led episodes outperform sustained market reform over the 20-year horizon. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: market_reform_duration_long_window_event_study
  • Event year: (not extracted)

Estimate

  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • coefficient: 0.3555242805279849
  • std_error: 0.2598307223836744
  • p_value: 0.171756053837131
  • n_obs: 625
  • n_countries: 23
  • r_squared_within: 0.0004146136760529995
  • method: linearmodels.PanelOLS (TWFE, country-clustered)
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_pop,rtfpna; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → durable_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index; movements:market_liberal_alignment → market_reform_duration (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • movements:developmentalism_alignment; policy_axes:industrial_policy → state_industrial_policy_episode (treatment, publisher=movements, n=61744)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-16T08:44:16+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.