Pre-registration
Material-footprint caps (Switzerland's 1-tonne society target, Welsh Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015) are technically implementable without triggering the collapse predicted by critics.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Primary no-collapse test uses national CHE and GBR proxies over 2015-2023. For each case, compute endpoint real GDP per capita change from WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD and endpoint unemployment change from WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. The claim's no-collapse component is refuted if either case has 2023 real GDP per capita more than 2% below its 2015 level or 2023 unemployment more than 2 percentage points above its 2015 level. It is only partially supported if both cases pass the no-collapse test, because the current local material-footprint vintage lacks CHE/GBR/Wales country observations and the policy cases are aspirational/partial rather than binding caps.
formal test & threshold
test: che_gbr_no_collapse_2015_2023 threshold: refute if any case breaches GDP<-2% or unemployment>+2pp; partial if no case breaches but material-footprint/cap bindingness remains untested
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
none- Sample
- 2 countries · 2010 – 2023
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Pattern-match across the Switzerland 1-tonne-society and Welsh Wellbeing-of-Future-Generations cases. Metrics: implementation status, GDP impact, employment effect, material-footprint trajectory, and public acceptance. Tests technical implementability without output collapse.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
log_real_gdp_pc outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
log_co2_emissions outcome | owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-countrytier 2 | log |
unemployment_rate outcome | world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2 | level |
ghg_emissions_total outcome | eurostat:env_air_ggetier 1 | log |
material_footprint_per_capita outcome | owid:material-footprint-per-capitatier 2 | log |
log_population control | world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2 | log |
services_share_gdp control | world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
material_footprint_cap_feasibility
Verdict: partial — CHE and GBR pass the registered 2015-2023 no-collapse macro thresholds, but material-footprint and Wales-specific binding-cap evidence remain unavailable locally, so full support is not scored.
Registered Test
- Cases: Switzerland (
CHE) and United Kingdom national proxy for Wales (GBR). - Period: 2015 to 2023 endpoints.
- Refute if any case has real GDP per capita below -2% or unemployment above +2pp.
- Full support is blocked unless country/Wales material-footprint and binding-cap data are available.
Case Results
- CHE: GDP pc +7.5%, unemployment -0.8pp.
- GBR: GDP pc +5.9%, unemployment -1.5pp.
Data Limitation
The local OWID material-footprint vintage contains no CHE/GBR/Wales observations; this run therefore cannot score full support.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Seeded from a degrowth claim that material-footprint caps (Switzerland's 1-tonne-society target, Welsh Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015) are technically implementable without triggering output collapse. v2 pre-registers a limited national-proxy no-collapse test because local material-footprint data currently contain a world aggregate only and no Wales-specific macro series.