IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024

Turkey's AKP-era 2003-2024 trajectory shows two distinct phases: 2003-2013 orthodox-anchor convergence (post-2001-banking-crisis IMF programme, EU-accession reform momentum, CBRT inflation targeting establishment, real GDP-pc growth outperforming EM peers) followed by 2014-2024 unorthodox-economics regression (anti-interest-rate doctrine, central-bank-independence erosion, recurring lira crises, inflation re-acceleration).

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic- control design with EM peers (Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Poland), the phase decomposition shows positive Turkey-vs-counterfactual cumulative log-GDP-pc gap over 2003-2013 (>+10 log-points, p_perm < 0.10) AND negative or zero gap over 2014-2024 (<= 0 log-points). The null counter-claim is that the apparent two-phase pattern is artefact of EM-cycle timing and Turkey's growth path is not statistically separable from EM peers' cycle.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=3, donors=5)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre-period coverage (years=3, donors=5)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Akp governance indicator
  • Phase indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Lira usd rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024
1007550250200020122024TURMEXBRAZAFIDNPOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 6 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Turkey's AKP-era 2003-2024 trajectory shows two distinct phases: 2003-2013 orthodox-anchor convergence (post-2001-banking-crisis IMF programme, EU-accession reform momentum, CBRT inflation targeting establishment, real GDP-pc growth outperforming EM peers) followed by 2014-2024 unorthodox-economics regression (anti-interest-rate doctrine, central-bank-independence erosion, recurring lira crises, inflation re-acceleration). The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic- control design with EM peers (Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Poland), the phase decomposition shows positive Turkey-vs-counterfactual cumulative log-GDP-pc gap over 2003-2013 (>+10 log-points, p_perm < 0.10) AND negative or zero gap over 2014-2024 (<= 0 log-points). The null counter-claim is that the apparent two-phase pattern is artefact of EM-cycle timing and Turkey's growth path is not statistically separable from EM peers' cycle.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if the phase-asymmetry pattern is NOT confirmed: specifically (a) early-phase 2003-2013 cumulative log-GDP-pc gap < +10 log-points at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) late-phase 2014-2024 cumulative log-GDP-pc gap > 0 (no regression visible), OR (c) the inflation-vs-counterfactual pattern fails to reverse between phases (e.g., inflation gap stays positive in both phases). The "two-phase" framing requires both phase coefficients to point as predicted with the directional break.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_phase_decomposition_with_inflation_validation
threshold: early_phase_gdp_gap >= 0.10 at p_perm < 0.10 AND late_phase_gdp_gap <= 0 AND early_phase_inflation_gap < 0 (disinflation outperformance) AND late_phase_inflation_gap > 0 (inflation underperformance)

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with TUR treated from 2003 and EM peer donor pool. Phase decomposition reports separate 2003-2013 and 2014-2024 cumulative gaps. Robustness drops Brazil (2014-2016 recession parallel) and runs the test with Poland-only counterfactual (closest EU-accession-track peer). The post-2018 currency crises are episodic; cumulative-loss measure averages over crisis and recovery quarters.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
log_level
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
yoy
lira_usd_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRFtier 2
log_level
cbrt_policy_rate
outcome
imf:FPOLM_PAtier 2
world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINRtier 2
level
akp_governance_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for TUR from 2003 onwardtier 5
binary
phase_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 (2003-2013 orthodox phase) vs 2 (2014-2024 unorthodox phase)tier 5
ordinal
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
emerging_market_vix
control
fred:VIXCLStier 1
level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — mena_turkey_akp_two_phase_economic_arc_2003_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre-period coverage (years=3, donors=5)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Turkey's AKP-era 2003-2024 trajectory shows two distinct phases: 2003-2013 orthodox-anchor convergence (post-2001-banking-crisis IMF programme, EU-accession reform momentum, CBRT inflation targeting establishment, real GDP-pc growth outperforming EM peers) followed by 2014-2024 unorthodox-economics regression (anti-interest-rate doctrine, central-bank-independence erosion, recurring lira crises, inflation re-acceleration). The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic- control design with EM peers (Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Poland), the phase decomposition shows positive Turkey-vs-counterfactual cumulative log-GDP-pc gap over 2003-2013 (>+10 log-points, p_perm < 0.10) AND negative or zero gap over 2014-2024 (<= 0 log-points). The null counter-claim is that the apparent two-phase pattern is artefact of EM-cycle timing and Turkey's growth path is not statistically separable from EM peers' cycle.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if the phase-asymmetry pattern is NOT confirmed: specifically (a) early-phase 2003-2013 cumulative log-GDP-pc gap < +10 log-points at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) late-phase 2014-2024 cumulative log-GDP-pc gap > 0 (no regression visible), OR (c) the inflation-vs-counterfactual pattern fails to reverse between phases (e.g., inflation gap stays positive in both phases). The "two-phase" framing requires both phase coefficients to point as predicted with the directional break.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • Error: insufficient pre-period coverage (years=3, donors=5)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; pwt:rgdpe → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRF → lira_usd_rate (outcome, n=12385)
  • imf:FPOLM_PA; world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINR → cbrt_policy_rate (outcome, n=4694)
  • constructed: 1 for TUR from 2003 onward → akp_governance_indicator (treatment, n=150)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, n=438)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, n=240)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • fred:VIXCLS → emerging_market_vix (controls, n=222)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed to be orthogonal to existing turkey_fx_erdogan hypothesis (which tests the 2021-2024 unorthodox response specifically); this hypothesis tests the longer 2003-2024 arc with phase decomposition. Data-gated on TÜİK and CBRT long-run series.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.