IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·middle_class_asset_building_market_depth

Middle-class wealth accumulation (median household net worth growth, homeownership rates, and financial-asset participation) is stronger in countries with deeper capital markets (stock-market capitalisation to GDP, private credit to GDP) and more secure property rights (WGI rule of law, Heritage property-rights score) than in peers at similar income levels with shallow financial systems or weak tenure security, over 1990-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/middle_class_asset_building_market_depth

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_median', 'oecd:OECD.HOU.POL', 'constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfso']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_median', 'oecd:OECD.HOU.POL', 'constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfso']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Stock market capitalisation income
  • Private credit income
What we checked
  • Median household net worth growth
  • Homeownership rate
  • Financial asset participation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/middle_class_asset_building_market_depth
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show median_household_net_worth_growth across 35 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for middle_class_asset_building_market_depth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/middle_class_asset_building_market_depth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Middle-class wealth accumulation (median household net worth growth, homeownership rates, and financial-asset participation) is stronger in countries with deeper capital markets (stock-market capitalisation to GDP, private credit to GDP) and more secure property rights (WGI rule of law, Heritage property-rights score) than in peers at similar income levels with shallow financial systems or weak tenure security, over 1990-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if deeper capital markets or stronger property rights are negatively and significantly (p < 0.10) associated with median wealth growth or homeownership, or if the association is positive but not significant after controlling for initial income and demographics.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_middle_class_assets_market_depth_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
median_household_net_worth_growth
outcome
constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_mediantier 5
log_diff
homeownership_rate
outcome
oecd:OECD.HOU.POLtier 2
level
financial_asset_participation
outcome
constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfsotier 5
level
stock_market_capitalisation_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZStier 2
log
private_credit_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GFDD.DI.14tier 2
log
property_rights_security
treatment
heritage_ief:property_rightstier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
inflation_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
old_age_dependency_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level
social_transfer_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:GC.XPN.TRFT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — middle_class_asset_building_market_depth

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_median', 'oecd:OECD.HOU.POL', 'constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfso']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Middle-class wealth accumulation (median household net worth growth, homeownership rates, and financial-asset participation) is stronger in countries with deeper capital markets (stock-market capitalisation to GDP, private credit to GDP) and more secure property rights (WGI rule of law, Heritage property-rights score) than in peers at similar income levels with shallow financial systems or weak tenure security, over 1990-2020.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if deeper capital markets or stronger property rights are negatively and significantly (p < 0.10) associated with median wealth growth or homeownership, or if the association is positive but not significant after controlling for initial income and demographics.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_middle_class_assets_market_depth_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_median', 'oecd:OECD.HOU.POL', 'constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfso']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:GFDD.DI.14 → private_credit_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6564)
  • heritage_efw:property_rights → property_rights_security (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=547)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL → old_age_dependency_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:credit_suisse_global_wealth_databook_median (outcome, name=median_household_net_worth_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:OECD.HOU.POL (outcome, name=homeownership_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:oecd_wealth_distribution; eurostat:lfso (outcome, name=financial_asset_participation) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS (treatment, name=stock_market_capitalisation_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.XPN.TRFT.ZS (controls, name=social_transfer_gdp) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.